Equality comes haltingly, with a whistle

Sarah Plain And Striped

In one of those small moments that will seem like a much larger one to far too many people, the NFL has hired its first full-time female ref, the at right Sarah Thomas.

Thomas has been around the top end of the college football scene for five years now, and has done the single best thing a ref can do - not get in the way of the damned game. Congrats to her, and to the NFL for breaking this news on the Friday before Easter, where it will hopefully sink under the waves with a minimum of troll aided comments from the Great Unhinged.

Oh, and to the people who are bound to react to this with horror and whatever... you do know the NBA has had female refs for, like, years, and hasn't had the game changed in any material way at all, right?

Your turn, MLB...

MLB 2015 Predictions: New York's Irrelevant, Chicago's Recovering, And Los Angeles Rules

Baseball Yes, Water No

Baseball's opening day hasn't exactly snuck up this year. Spring training has been long, there's no World Baseball nonsense to ruin lives, and for once, there's no Stunt Casting of games in some Asian theater to mess up Opening Day. There's been a bunch of bummer pitching injuries, but with the leveling of the money field and less of a clear advantage to constantly contending MLB+ teams, the year seems more inviting. Unlike past years, you can't just scratch off a third of the franchises as for having no hope; it's more like a sixth, and most of those got there by incompetence, rather than salary tanking. It's encouraging, even though the lack of good NY teams this year will make the national media narrative go back to the Baseball Is Dying motif.

Having said that, there's still less competitive parity here than in most leagues, and the continuing Death Of Offense has made the real game and the fake ones a lot less fun than they used to be. Don't get me wrong, it's still a great game, and always will be... but only if your team is great. If your team is a boring drudgework of low scoring losses, it's just a good place to waste time and get your eat and drink on. But only if you can afford it, which is why the crowds are older and whiter and less likely to come very often. But enough of that... let's get to the prognosticating.

AL East

1) Baltimore
2) Boston
3) Toronto
4) New York
5) Tampa

The Orioles will miss Nelson Cruz, but not as much as they'll appreciate the continuing growth of Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop in the infield, and Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman on the mound. People forget these guys won 96 games last year, and that was with a fair amount of injuries. Boston will be a popular pick to continue their first or worst pattern, but the lack of a front-line ace on the mound and too many injury risks in the field will keep them from full potential.

Toronto can mess you up with their offense with increasingly rare true power all over the board, but the rotation has way too many questions for long winning streaks. New York is not so secretly terrible in the field, with an equal mix of guys that won't hit (2B, SS), stay healthy (C, 1B, RF) or overcome the increasingly toxic Bronx atmosphere (3B, LF, CF). The pitching staff will keep them from falling through the floorboards, but this looks like an 80 win team to me. Tampa may have a historically bad offense, with only 3B Evan Longoria looking to be better than league average at his position, if RF rookie Stephen Souza isn't real good, real fast. Look for a depressing year of 3-1 losses, half of them played in an empty warehouse.

AL Central

1) Cleveland
2) Detroit
3) Chicago
4) Kansas City
5) Minnesota

Maybe I'm overrating the Indians' emerging rotation, but there's just an awful lot of swing and miss here, and in a hodge-podge of a division, I think they'll make the difference. The club also got Brandon Moss for cheap to go with sneaky MVP Michael Brantley and solid pieces like C Yan Gomes, 2B Jason Kipnis and 1B Carlos Santana, and I think there's a reasonable chance Moss gets healthy and gives them real power. Detroit's rotation has fallen off a cliff recently, with Justin Verlander going to the DL with He's Not Good Anymore Itis, Doug Fister still in DC for no good reason, and Max Scherzer joining him there for big dollars. They'll still compete like mad, especially if Miguel Cabrera can stay healthy, but the bullpen stinks and the Tribe will be better. 

Chicago will be the division's breakout team for much of the year, especially if the 1B/DH combo of Jose Abreu and Adam LaRoche can combine for 60+ HRs, but the back-end of the rotation and bullpen won't hold up to late-season innings. Kansas City's level of delusion following an 89 win year and hot October is charming, but they still don't hit enough, and teams built around dominant relief pitching fall apart faster than any other kind. The players on the next winning Minnesota team aren't ready to contribute at the major league level, but they're coming. Check back in 2017.

AL West

1) LA Angels
2) Seattle
3) Oakland
4) Houston
5) Texas

LA won this division going away last year with a tsunami of pitching injuries; this year, they'll do the same without, especially now that the bullpen is good from the start. Seattle is still a bat or two away from being truly dangerous, but the rotation could be the best in a playoff series. The bullpen, not so much. There's always a thought that whatever Billy Beane's doing in Oakland will work out, but sometimes it's just buying time until other things develop, and that's what's going on for 2015, especially when the offense looks this power compromised, and the pitching has too many guys with innings issues. Losing LF Coco Crisp for the first two months is also a real problem. For all of the man's genius, the drafting has been discouraging.

Houston could go higher, especially if OF George Springer emerges and stays healthy, but the back end of the rotation for the next +.500 Astro club is still in the minors. Texas has angered the Injury Gods, especially on the pitching mound, and needs Prince Fielder to be his old self. Not exactly great bets. Atonement will be long and painful.

NL East

1) Washington
2) Miami
3) Atlanta
4) New York
5) Philadelphia

The Nats will run away with this, because their rotation is absurdly good, and the offense is going to be better than last year. Watch for them to spend most of September coasting to a title and messing up their momentum, because they like to overthink things down there. Miami is the surprise team here, with the game's best young outfield overcoming their park and dragging the rest of the team to prominence in a weak division. Atlanta still has a lot of talent, but they can't seem to stay healthy, and no one knows why manager Fredi Gonzalez still has a gig. I'm also really not fond of the new-look OF.

The Mets could have been dangerous if Zack Wheeler had stayed healthy and if the corner OFs weren't big contract old guys (Michael Cuddyer, Curtis Granderson) who aren't going to perform better than league average. Philadelphia will be the worst team in the majors, and it won't be close, to the point where even the spectacularly negligent ownership will have to run off hopelessly failed GM Ruben Amaro Jr. With 3B Maikel Franco now looking like a Quad-A wind machine, there is absolutely no reason to watch this franchise, assuming that 2B Chase Utley and SP Cole Hamels get sent off out of mercy.

NL Central

1) St Louis
2) Pittsburgh
3) Chicago
4) Milwaukee
5) Cincinnati

Picking the Cards to be good is like picking the tides to come in, but so be it; baseball's best franchise just keeps rolling along, with a meat grinder OBP line up backing up a no nonsense pitching staff and power bully. When things go wrong, they always have an answer in the minors, too. It's maddening. Pittsburgh has a killer young OF and an ace in the making in SP Gerrit Cole, but 3B Josh Harrison will regress, 1B Perdo Alvarez looks broken, and not being as good as St. Louis is hardly a crime. Chicago should miss the wild card by the number of April games they will punt by not starting 3B Kris Bryant in the majors, because that is how karma works. If they were in the East, I think they'd make the playoffs as a wild card.

Milwaukee will hit enough to not fall through the floorboards, especially if OF Ryan Braun's spring thumb is the real deal, but a SP rotation where Kyle Lohse is your ace is not nearly good enough. Cincy brings up the rear with an offense that's more name than production in too many places (2B, RF, 1B) and a pitching staff that falls apart fast if Homer Bailey isn't healthy and great, which is to say, two things he's not. Closer Aroldis Chapman is an absolute beast, though.

NL West

1) Los Angeles
2) San Francisco
3) San Diego
4) Arizona
5) Colorado

It's cold comfort to Dodger Fan to know that his team was a half dozen games better than the world champs last year in the regular season, and are likely to be again, so long as SP Clayton Kershaw's arm doesn't fall off. OF Joc Pederson is going to be everything they could hope for, and look for the new DP combo of Howie Kendrick and Jimmy Rollins to be surprisingly helpful. This rotation is unfair. In San Francisco, the loss of 3B Pablo Sandoval will hurt all year long, and the rotation depth might make them slide further if Matt Cain isn't really good really soon. San Diego's off-season shopstorm gets them to relevant, but they didn't pick up much in the way of defense, and the park isn't going to be enough to cover all of the leaks. It's going to be a lot more fun to watch than last year's punchless chuckleheads, though.

Arizona will be more fun this year, with the return of 1B Paul Goldschmidt, some promising new arms for the rotation (Jeremy Hellickson, Rubby De La Rosa), and the potential that Cuban import 3B/OF Yasmany Tomas will be a great big load of sunk cost (15Ks in 66 spring training ABs, defense at third that's shaky at best, new manager Chip Hale threatening him with the minors despite his contract). At least they won't be Colorado, where Kyle Kendrick (!) takes the hill on opening day. No, seriously. What do you get when you combine the majors' worst pitching staff with its best hitting environment? Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez getting hurt from a barrage of line drives, rather than their own devices, is what I'm guessing.

Surprise teams: Indians, Marlins

Disappointing teams: Yankees, Braves

Rookies of the Year: Dalton Pompey and Kris Bryant

Cy Young Winners: Felix Hernandez and Stephen Strasburg

Most Valuable Players: Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen

AL Playoffs: Seattle over Detroit in the wild card, then LA over Cleveland, and Baltimore over Seattle. LA over Baltimore to get to the WS.

NL Playoffs: Miami over San Francisco in the wild card, then LA over Washington and St Louis over Miami. LA over St Louis to get to the WS.

World Series: Angels over Dodgers, with traffic ending just in time for Spring Training 2016

The Utley Issue

Chut's the man. Motion passed.

So there's a nice piece of service to the Failing Phils' long-time HOF-bound (maybe) 2B, the last link to the glory years that the fans still actually want around, and as to why that is, over on NBC Philly today. (Yeah, moment of weakness, I looked, you don't have to.)

The writer notes the past glories of Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz, and wonders why people are still good with the Chut, rather than them. Eventually, this comes down to the idea that the late great Harry Kalas got more enthused about him than the others, and, um, Philly Fan's just a big softie who misses Harry. (Well, to be fair, anyone with a pair of brain cells to rub together misses Harry. But still.)

Missing, of course, the three actual points involved in Utley's continuing popularity.

1) He's still actually pretty good. He was always great when healthy. Last year, for the most part and improbably, he was healthy. So it's not like you have to have your nose rubbed in it during a Jeter-esque swan song that's sub-replacement level bad. Chut is still basically an All-Star, which says as much about second base as it does him, but hey.

2) He's an everyday player. Which makes him more popular than Hamels, the WS MVP and actual best player on the team, or at least the last one with any actual trade value.

3) Unlike Howard and Ruiz and the departed Rollins, Chut shares something in common with the fan base, especially the vast majority of those in the good seats.

Because while Philly Fan is no more racist than New York Fan or Boston Fan or Detroit Fan or Cleveland Fan or Chicago Fan or, well, Any MLB Fan...

He's not less.

We now return you to Other Obvious Things That Bloggers Can Say, Rather Than People Working For NBC, after this brief commercial ad banner...

I hate Boston, and even I don't want them to get the Olympics

Well, in theory, anyway

Here's something that the world will grow to realize over the next decade or so, hopefully to the point where Things Change A Lot: the Olympics (and the World Cup) are about as good for a region to host as an outbreak of the plague.

Overselling it? Not really. Beyond the traffic and logistics nightmares that aren't really covered by the influx of clueless in and out tourist dollars, there's the real reason why cities push for these: amazing kickbacks from the construction industry to political elites. There is no other reason for it.

After all, it's not as if every area has enough velocidromes (or whatever they call where they race the bicycles), judo and wrestling arenas, equestrian facilities, and so on, and so on. (Or that there will be any use for these facilities after the circus leaves town, no matter what the paid flacks say.) And if a region does have a space for whatever esoterica you can dream up, it can't possibly be up to Olympic / World standards, right? Of course not. Build something new! It's such a boon for the economy. Assuming you define economy in the local, as in local to the tight net of construction related companies that adore your have to have it now now now deadline charging needs. Pay to play. With someone else paying. (Which would be, well, the local citizens.)

This is where, of course, you might wonder why the media isn't pointing out the cesspool of corruption involved here... until you remember that, um, the media is absolutely in the tank for the event. Live sports draws a number, networks want the events to do well either for their property or for the ability to bid for it later, and if you really believe that the news divisions of media companies are ready to bring the tough reporting for their in-house wings, go check how much scrutiny the Washington Post has given to the dirty, dirty world of online education. (Here, I'll save you the step. Next to none, because they own one of the major players in the space. If you want actual journalism on this, you will, of course, have to find it in jokes; try John Oliver's "Last Week Tonight" on YouTube.)

See, here's the thing. All public expenditures for all stadiums are theft. Period. End of statement. Move along. Nothing more to see here. If building a stadium was really an economic boon to the area, team owners and organizations like the IOC and FIFA would not take a dime of taxpayer money. The owners and orgs know this is a money sinkhole. That's why they don't pay for it. But they are happy to tell you why you should, and so is the media.

One of the small fortunate side effects of the massive corruption of media in my lifetime is that people question things like this now, and there's been a small but growing opposition to new pleasure palaces growing across the country. Boston's taxpayers are said to be up in arms to the point of trying to get out of being considered for the Olympics. Brazil's underclass hated the World Cup, and they'll hate the Olympics very soon as well. (Especially when the cost of running them has been wildly underestimated due to massive venue issues based around pollution levels. But I digress.)

In a better world where temporary construction projects like this would never get green lit, the IOC and FIFA would have to play ball and split their events up, hit the same areas over and over again, and in general, act like responsible human beings, rather than howler monkeys. Like, say, rotating it among  half dozen different cities that have resources already in place, and calling it a day.

Instead, it gets bid on by worked governments and the corrupt or naive, and a massive bill is left for local taxpayer.

Just like what happens when a sports league needs a new venue!

Kris Bryant Can End The Cubs and MLB's Nonsense

Obi Kris, You're Our Only Hope

So Chicago has sent consensus #1 minor league prospect 3B Kris Bryant, who clearly did not do enough to win the Opening Day job by hitting .425 with 8 HRs (most in MLB spring training), to AAA Peoria.

Wait, no. Yeah, no one is saying that Bryant isn't the best option for the Cubs at third. Even a franchise that hasn't won a World Series for over a century isn't that insane. Rather, the Cubs will benefit with ridiculous fiscal advantage by protecting Bryant's service clock from gaining the full year by starting him in the minors. So performance doesn't matter. Down he goes, and the MLBPA be damned, and the fact that the players' share of the revenue is at a two-decade low from shenanigans like this also doesn't matter.

Nor does the integrity of the game, the fact that Bryant might help the Cubs, you know, win more games in the early going that they'd find remarkably useful later in the year, or just that This Is Clearly Madness and one more reason why People Should Not Take Baseball Seriously. The fact that it's also not a new problem, and that it's becoming increasingly impossible to just go to a game without getting your accountant on, is also of no concern. Bryant's service clock is the only thing that matters.

Now, I don't really want to get into the history of teams that have shot themselves in the foot over this. Keith Olbermann's already done that in an excellent segment, and you should go watch it, over at the World Wide Lemur. (The short of it is that the Red Sox, Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies and Angels have all probably cost themselves playoff glory over service time machinations, and that karma is a stone cold bitch. But you probably already knew that.)

Rather, I want to point out the one person in America that could end this nonsense.

In this case, his name is Kris Bryant.

Here's how.

Bryant could tell the Cubs that if he's not going to start the year with the club, he is not going to sign a contract extension with them. EVER. A decision that, well, fans of every other MLB franchise would applaud.

Bryant could tell them that they might as well put him on the trade block right now, since he's playing with a franchise that would rather play accountant than baseball. Also, that he feels so strongly about this, that he's not going to go to Peoria; he's just going to go home. Maybe take up another profession, like MMA, or motorcycle racing, or alligator wrestling. Be creative.

(Also, this. We live in an era where people feel fine about shaming each other for poor jokes on Twitter. Why the hell are we, or anyone, not shaming the Cubs at every possible instance for this?)

Bryant could tell the MLBPA that he would like to be the lead plaintiff in a class-action lawsuit for every unjustly quarantined minor-league player whose wages and pension is being docked for reasons that have absolutely nothing to do with baseball. You'd have to think there would be more than enough statistical evidence to turn this into money in front of a reasonable judge. Plus, hey, spectacular PR for a league that's just shiny and perfect.

Bryant could tell the MLBPA and the Cubs that he is morally opposed to the production of any merchandise with his name or number on it, since he's not going to be with an organization that doesn't put winning first. Or, indeed, that he's not going to be with this organization for very long.

Here's the thing about all of these actions. In each and every instance, Bryant would be 100% justified.

And in each and every instance, the Cubs would cave faster than you could say...

1908?

And, hopefully, prevent every other club from pulling this nonsense in the future, and honestly put fire to the ass of MLB to fix their idiot clock issue...