The Phillies are 2-4, and maybe already dead

Not exactly a face of triumph

Today in South Philly, the home team dropped the rubber match of their series with the Royals, despite a big ninth inning comeback. They squandered an early lead despite Cole Hamels being on the mound, saw a slow drip of offense for the opposition build to a torrent, and didn't get enough done on their own, despite a loud and loyal crowd that isn't really the usual crowd of Philly defeatists. (That's something new in the last decade, because the home crowd has spent almost all of their time in the new park expecting, and getting, good results.)

And while I'm not sure that the way that they've lost four out of six games so far is terribly indicative, the bigger issue is, well, they've dropped four out of six. In the meanwhile, Atlanta is 5-1, and the Nats are 4-2. (I'm going to ignore the Mets also having four wins, in that those came against the Padres and Marlins, but I probably shouldn't. The young pitching has been great, and the offense, better than expected. But they aren't germane to the point of this post.)

The bigger point, and this isn't very different from what was being said in spring training, is that the 2013 Phils could be a lot better than the 2012 edition, and not have it matter very much. Domonic Brown looks a lot better. Michael Young is having the last hurrah bounce back year that going to the weaker league more or less predicted. A full year of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard -- especially the former, who is playing like the best second basemen in MLB again -- is going to do all sorts of good things for them. (Let's assume, for the moment, that they still healthy, despite the fact that there's no reason to expect that, given their ages.)

The bullpen has been the biggest reason why they've gone 2-4 so far, but there are some quality arms there, and a bad week does not mean they are going to have a bad year. I still think they'll be better than they were last year. Losing two of three to Atlanta on the road is not exactly a hard thing to do, and I think the Royals are a .500 club that's going to hit this year; one more hit in today's game would make them .500.

But last year, this team was 81-81. This year, they could be a half dozen games better than that, and never get near a pennant race. The Nats and Braves look that much better in the everyday 8 -- hell, the Braves outfield alone looks like they could all make the All Star Game -- and not demonstrably worse in the rotation or bullpen.

If they were in the Central or maybe even the West, there would be more of a margin for error. But they aren't. So 2-4 matters, and can't be shrugged off as just being early, or something that can be ignored until May or June. This team does not have the ability to let any game go, from April on.

The two things that I'm praying the Eagles aren't going to do

Do Not Want

1) Trading for Darrelle Revis

First off, the obvious. Revis is, when healthy, the best corner in pro football, and it's not even all that close. He ends WR1s, make interceptions despite teams trying to avoid him, tackles well for a corner and stays relatively quiet for a player of his position and pedigree. At age 27, he should have another 3 to 5 years of peak level performance ahead of him, and probably another 2-3 years of serviceable CB2 work after that. He makes teams better, and pass defenses a lot better.

And that's the end of the good part, and it ends with a quickness.

For better or worse, the guy has never been happy with his contract. He's not a guarantee to get back all of his powers following last year's season-ending injury. Any decrease in quicks could prove fatal to his production, as he's a 5'-11" 198-pound guy, rather than someone who dominates with size. So you are likely to be paying top price for a guy who isn't what is advertised.

That price, by the way, is going to be more than money, though there's going to be a lot of that spent to make him happy. Draft picks, and there will be several and significant, especially as he's likely to have many suitors. The upsetting of an apple cart that has spent the off-season building depth from winning organizations, and, well, Revis hasn't had that for years now. And the biggest price of all... the very tone of the Chip Kelly Era.

You see, signing Revis doesn't say that you are building a team from the ground up after a disastrous 4-12 year. It says that you are trying to make the playoffs and go deep by adding a prime player, that your talent level is good enough to contend right away, and that there does not need to be any amount of time spent in purging players that don't fit your needs, and training the noobs and the older ones.

It is, in short, the wrong tone to set. The next good Eagles team isn't due until 2014 or 2015; 2013 will be the only year where Kelly can go 6-10 without the world trying to get him canned. By the time these Eagles have any real championship expectations, Revis will be on the downside of his career, taking up a bigger portion of salary, and not really up to the job they'll need him to do.

2) Drafting Geno Smith.

If Smith was a true #1 pick at QB -- an Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin level talent -- I'd grit my teeth and take him, since generational QBs are rare and treasured, as well as reasonable bets to last a decade or so, barring injury or weirdness. But that's not what the scouts or your eyes tend to say about Smith. He's going to be good, and have a better and longer career than anyone that is currently on the Eagles' roster... but if you think he's going to be a Super Bowl winning or contending QB, rather than a better than average game manager with benefits type... well, you are on something of an island there.

There's also this; I'm not certain that the line is worthy of a high pick yet. RT Jason Peters is saying all of the right things about his health, and if his health has a domino effect on the others, this becomes a very good unit... but not exactly a super-young or deep outfit, considering how they were pulling guys off the street last year. There are (still) bigger needs for this team -- a Pro Bowl-level player for the front seven (maybe Dion Jordan, though I'm leery of drafting from Kelly's alma mater), a shutdown corner (Dee Milliner impresses me a lot) for many years, or a bookend tackle (Luke Joeckel is my first and best crush of this class) -- that come to mind.

In short, this team was 4-12 for a reason. Draft the best available players with your high picks. Take your lumps now. Do not try to cheat or short circuit the process that says building an organization is not a quick fix. Have patience, even if your fan base or new coach or owner does not.

Because, well, there are clear examples of what it looks like when an organization isn't realistic about their chances to win, and goes for it every year. It looks a lot like Dallas and Washington. Or this team, for the past five years...

Pretenders vs. Pretenders

Testify

Today in the Staples Center, the Clippers played the Lakers for the fourth time today. In what was a home game for the erstwhile JV, at least half of the crowd marked out for the Lake Show. The elders had a full complement of talent, assuming that you do not believe, as well you should not, that Metta World Peace is a vital part of a balanced breakfast, and that Steve Nash gives you back everything he might give you on offense by having nothing left to give on defense.

The Lakers desperately needed the game to hold off Utah for the final playoff spot in the West. The Clippers strongly wanted the win to clinch the Pacific for the first time in their unsightly history, as well as their first season sweep over the Lakers.

Dwight Howard came to play. Kobe Bryant had his assists working hard and did not come off the floor for pretty much the entire game. Pau Gasol gave them a double-double and hope that he wasn't quite ready for the glue factory yet. Dwight Howard looked like he cared and everything. And none of that mattered, even though this one was closer than the other games, because one of these teams is kinda good, and the other is mostly not.

I get that I've rang the bell on this Laker team earlier this year, and they are likely to make the playoffs anyway. I get that Howard leads the league in rebounding now, and that Bryant seems to give them a puncher's chance in any game. But the Lakers are just a mess; not good on defense unless they play Howard, hamstrung on offense if Howard is on the floor and not hitting free throws, wildly dependent on three point shooting and the increasingly ineffective Bryant, with a coach (Mike D'Antoni) that seems wildly unsuited to the talent.

And there's also the fact that Chris Paul is a lot better than Bryant now, and Blake Griffin is better than Howard. That helps, too.

The Clips even got to go to Clown Mode late in this one, with Griffin hitting spikes and three pointers, intentionally fouling Howard while up 13 (because, well, why not?) and sending the Laker crowd to the exits. There's also just how it looks when you've got a team of aging and not terribly athletic players going against guys with trampolines in their hamstrings. Which is to say, not very good for the Lakers. Youth has been served, and it was not close.

But here's the hidden bummer factor on what might have been the best day ever to be a Clipper Fan... your team isn't going anywhere, either. A first round date with the Grizzlies awaits, and while you might get past that one, you aren't better than the Spurs or Thunder. (You might not even be better than the Nuggets, though now with Danilo Gallinari out for the year, maybe that team fades a little faster than usual.)  I could even see them falling to the Warriors if they meet them in the first round, because that team can shoot anyone out in a series.

And once that happens... well, Vinny del Negro isn't signed for next year. Paul isn't going to react well to a stagnant situation. DeAndre Jordan is a lot of fun to watch, but unplayable in late and close games due to the free throw issues, and makes ridiculous bank for a part-time player due the Clips matching an offer sheet from the Warriors last year. They are getting a borderline Sixth Man of the Year season out of Jamal Crawford, and Crawford is a 33-year-old shoot-first guard; that's not happening again. Chauncey Billups is just about done, and they get a lot of defensive juice out of Matt Barnes and Caron Butler; both are 33. So is Lamar Odom, which isn't that big of a deal, except that he keeps Jordan off the floor. And the sad little point is that Donald Sterling is poison, and can't be part of a winning situation for very much longer.

So... um, enjoy, Clipper Fan. You've vanquished your most hated rival, and can dream that this means you've taken another step up the ladder. But the next rungs are still occupied by the teams that played for the right to go to the Finals from the West last year... and they both got better. This is as good as it gets.

Top 10 takeaways from MLB's Opening Week

Has more RBIs than 8 teams

10) If Chris Davis isn't on your fantasy team roster, you aren't in first place

9) CC Sabathia outdueled Justin Verlander to salvage a game in Detroit for the Yankees, and at least 100,000 in paid attendance in the Bronx in April

8) In the time it took you to read this, a Houston Astro has struck out

7) Marco Scutaro showed that while he may dominate October, April is an entirely different matter

6) Robinson Cano is hitting .130 with no homers or RBIs, which would be meaningful if anyone who plays fantasy baseball is dumb enough to deal him now

5) Carlos Marmol lost the closing job for the Cubs, which begs the question of how he ever got it in the first place

4) It turns out that this Clayton Kershaw guy is going to stay good or something

3) Dan Haren is giving fans in the rest of the NL East hope that the season may be worth playing after all

2) Justin Upton seems OK with this idea of playing on the same team as his brother

1) No team is winless, though fans of Houston, Miami, Milwaukee and San Diego will be excused for thinking otherwise

What I Learned On My Spring Vacation

Not Shown: The Lines

Well, kids, it's the end of six working days and ten total days of vacation, and I guess I should get back to work. Here's what I've learned in the time off.

> Driving 1,000 miles each way to take a vacation with five people in a hybrid hatchback may be economical, but it's not a lot of fun

> Traveling with kids means that you will stop for them about 2 to 3X more than your car will demand, and that your ETA will never, ever be accurate

> GPS sucks when it comes to getting around Washington, DC, mostly because there is no really good way to get around Washington, DC

> If your 7-year-old vomits in a theme park, do not assume that it will stop at one or two instances, that there is any chance that it's not getting on you, and that you and your spouse will then spend the next 18 hours losing weight the hard way

> Universal has long lines, costs too much money, and isn't a place you'll need to go back to once you've spent time there, but it's still way better than Disney

> The reason why is the underlying message of "Hey, you're a nerd for this movie, come take a ride" is vastly superior to "If you don't take your child here, they will never experience magic or joy"

> By the time you finish your vacation, you will finally know where to go and what to do, but not one minute before

> Florida remains a seductive oasis of warmth where you can more or less feel your intellect and will to work drain away, never to return

> The people who sell and design timeshare locations feel that casino operators are charmingly organic and well-meaning

> Not writing or exercising for 10 days makes the return to writing and exercising will make your inner lazy fat slob absolutely pule

And with that, back at it.