Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Top 10 reasons why the Eagles hired Juan Castillo to be their new defensive coordinator

10) By hiring someone who has not coached defense at the professional level, they get a guy with many, many fresh ideas

9) Wanted to make sure they didn't lose him, despite not being willing to promote him to, say, offensive coordinator

8) After the Sean McDermott Historically Bad Red Zone performance last year, ready to try something really, really different

7) Had to show all of the team's detractors that they were, in fact, loyal to a fault

6) Figure that since he spent a lot of time with the late Jim Johnson, it must have rubbed off

5) As a former linebacker, the club feels that maybe he can finally help the team get someone to play that position that doesn't make their fans pull their hair out

4) Gives Eagle Fan something to go completely overboard about before the NFL Draft, since Eagle Fan is never happier than when he's going completely overboard

3) By waiting until Super Bowl Week and Media Day to announce the highly curious signing, hope to have this pass right under the notice of the local media, who never notice things like this

2) Castillo is fluent in Spanish, which really comes in handy when coaching all of the Spanish-speaking only talent that's coming into the NFL these days

1) Figure that after the Mike Vick signing, a decade of being in the playoffs and under the cap with no championships, and a steadily deteriorating defense, their PR department can sell anything

Top 10 reasons why Bill Belichick won the AP Coach of the Year award

10) As far as the voters can tell, he didn't cheat this year or nothin'

9) Gives Rex Ryan something else to use in transparent motivational speeches

8) By getting production out of scrappy small white guys, proved that he was a Super Genius

7) Voting clearly does not apply to playoffs

6) Raheem Morris, the second-place finisher, doesn't even have a signature clothing style

5) Somehow managed to have a good year despite a roster filled with high draft picks and a Hall of Fame level QB

4) As the only man to coach Randy Moss in 2010 not to be fired, clearly deserved some kind of award

3) Voters really respected his ability to deliver a high win count while plowing another man's wife

2) Consolation prize for his coaching tree going down in flames and losing a home playoff game where they were nearly double-digit favorites

1) If they didn't vote for him, the other NFL coaches wouldn't get the hint that the AP reporters don't appreciate it when they can't sleep through the post-game press conference

Top 10 Super Bowl Prop Bets

Oh, the wackiness of amateur betting! It's almost as if it's not a vice, or a guaranteed money maker for reprehensible corporations that traffic in human misery. But not yours, provided you bet wisely. Let's get right to it!

10) National anthem length. I can't get into this bet, because it involves paying attention to the anthem. Honestly, haven't you heard this song enough? Unless someone is going to do a Shatner-esque rendition, speed-read it off like an '80s FedEx ad, or give it a dramatic, pause-filled Christopher Walken-esque reading, I'm just happier giving it a miss. Besides, you're going to be spending the next five-plus hours staring at the screen, since it's the one event a year where you aren't supposed to skip the ads, so...

9) Coin flip. People give this one way too much play, as if it's the single telltale sign of a gambling problem. Look, if betting on a coin flip is a bad idea, then why do roulette wheels exist? I say go for it. It's the one bet you'll make that you won't chastise yourself for someone making the wrong choice on later.

8) Jerry Jones shots. Honestly, if there is any better indictment of how much the current telecast standards of the networks that broadcast the NFL, it's this bet. Jones will have nothing to do with the outcome of this game. It's not his team, he's just the host, and to my knowledge, the host owner has never appeared on a Super Bowl telecast before. But the over/under on this happening? 2.5. Once again, it's the bet that requires you to either root for Jones to appear, or live in (greater) fear of him doing it. No winners here, really.

7) Brett Favre mentions. Just like Jerruh, really, but with the mention of the media's very favorite drama queen carpetbagging turnover machine. How about we just replace all of these bets with an over/under of the times that Fox pulls it and seasons the audience?

6) Exact number of touchdowns. This one is awesome because you get the possibility of a last-second crushing failure in garbage time, and there's really nothing better than your gambling payoff lost on a play that the guys on the field don't care about. Nothing quite says vice like losing money for no reason. No reason at all!

5) Longest field goal. What can possibly be more exciting than rooting for a field goal? Why, a long field goal, of course! The over/under here is 43.5, which seems fairly low to me for a quasi-dome game with two reasonable kickers, but what the hey -- you are betting on kickers. Extra special bonus if you go for the over, and have it bang off an upright, so that you can *really* obsess over your poor luck.

4) Safety bet. I suppose the odds for this are better than an ordinary game, given that the defenses get after the QB and both teams don't turtle up from in deep... but honestly, if you are watching the game at a party and losing your fudge over a safety, especially if the game is out of hand? That's good Problem Gambling evidence right there. Your intervention could have an open bar!

3) Total punts. It's kind of like taking the under, only for people who achieved profound orgasms during that Ravens-Giants Super Bowl that might have been the worst game ever played. (Remember, America? It's when your big game QBs were Trent Dilfer and Kerry Collins. No, seriously, that happened.)

2) All cross-sport props. Honestly, if your gambling mojo can only be stoked by matching Blake Griffn's rebounds, Rajon Rondo's points and assists, or some odd amalgamation of hockey goals against made field goals... Well, I'd like to think that these bets are just here to amuse people, and that no one actually bets them. But, of course, we know better. And that no sportsbook does anything without getting paid.

1) Arrests. No, seriously, you can bet on the number of NFL personnel that get taken to the Big House before the game. Personally, I think this one is just candy, since you could place the bet, then go to Dallas and do your level best to try to influence an NFL player to take a swing at you, triggering the drunk tank fill-up that would make your nut for you. Either that, or you can run a sting operation, probably with your wacky neighbor, and pitch the whole thing as a later Fox sitcom. Get creative, people!

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Face The Face



Five days before the Latest Game To End All Games, and you can already hear the roiling murmurs of whiny from the nation's press corps and Blogfricans, especially the ones who have been to the carnival enough times to complain that the popcorn is too greasy. Dallas is cold. The town isn't really a vacation spot, especially in February. Steeler Fan is fat, and Packer Fan is morbidly obese, and both fan bases redefine painful whiteness in our time. But that's really not the problem with this game, at least from the perspective of people who would rather write about personalities, rather than athletics.

Here's the plain, simple and ugly truth behind what's going to be a surprising amount of bitching about this match-up; there really isn't anyone on the field for people to root *against*.

Sure, Ben Roethlisberger is a reprehensible quasi-rapist... but since there were no charges, and he doesn't behave like an asshat on the field, it's just something you have to remember. (Let's face it; if Jay Cutler had Big Ben's off-season rap sheet, Bear Fan would have set him on fire, mostly because Bear Fan is looking for any excuse to set Cutler on fire. And I don't much blame them.) Hines Ward may be the dirtiest WR in the league, but it's a *fun* kind of dirty, with cleat-leaving blindside blocks that appeal to the reptilian mind better than anyone else who has ever played the position. If either of these guys played for your laundry, with Roethlisberger's record of getting to the Super Bowl and Ward's highlight reel of terror, you'd love them.

And those two are, frankly, the biggest "heel" candidates in the game. The other 20 Steeler starters are downright adorable. Troy Polamalu makes fun of his hair for money, and is sincere in his religious beliefs. The young wideouts haven't put up enough numbers yet to become divas. Rashard Mendenhall is a joy to watch; power, speed, ornery. TE Heath Miller is the club's best clutch performer, and still stays in to block most of the time. The linebackers are cheerful purveyors of violence, and as an Eagle Fan, I'd give my eye teeth for any of them, even if James Farrior is close to the end, and Jerome Harrison is a fine waiting to happen. CB Ike Taylor just makes plays every time I look at him, and S Ryan Clark might be (shh!) better than Polamalu at this point. DE Brent Keisel has epic facial hair. The club is run intelligently, is your routine best defense against Patriot Overlords, and usually smacks Ray Lewis in his big, fat, accessory to murder mouth. What's not to love, really?

On the other side, you've got the Packers, and here's how hateful they are; they ended my team's year, killed both of my fantasy teams with the first-week loss of RB1 Ryan Grant, and... I still kind of like them. Part of this is because it's impossible to hate on Wisconsin; these are people who are filled with cheese and good will, and given that first part, if you just look at them funny, they drop like fruit flies. And the rest of it is the roster. Who am I supposed to hate here? Aaron Rodgers is eventually going to be an object of hate, just because if he's fortunate enough to avoid concussion, he's going to go to four or five Super Bowls. Greg Jennings is reasonably quiet for a #1 WR. The RBs are all anonymous, the other skill guys don't have numbers, and the closest guy to a mouth on defense is Clay Mathews, who mostly talks with his hair. So long as these people don't take Favre back, I'm fine with all of them.

And that, of course, is death for the media. Face vs. face makes us come back to how it's really about the game, and not the BS narrative... and truth be told, the media's not about the game. The game is for nerds and geeks and gomers and lifers, the people who are going to watch no matter what. When you can wrap it up in a cute little bow of Hate That Guy And Love This Guy, that's when the general public comes in.

Well, screw them. Not like they read this blog anyway.

And screw the media, too, for not being OK when it's just about the game. Because, well, it's a pretty damn good game. You can have all of that other nonsense.

The Super Pick

Pittsburgh at GREEN BAY (-2.5)

It's a legitimately fascinating game. Pittsburgh is basically a deluxe version of Chicago, the one team in the NFC that consistently slowed down the Packers attack. The way to do it is to have plus pass rushers that come from any number of angles, so that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers gets confused and/or tentative. That's the way to neutralize a QB that can prolong plays with his legs, and when you look at the Steeler wins (NYJ, Baltimore), you see them taking young guys who can run a little and putting them down hard.

But the trouble with this defense is that S Troy Polamalu is a shell of himself, and the DL is secretly old. They look great in the first half, then start to fall apart, especially on long drives -- again, the Jets' game is highly informative. History will note that this is more of a transitional Steelers defense, rather than a cohesive and dominant unit, especially when you get to the second and third wideout. For the Packers, that's just money calling, with wily veteran Donald Driver (playing near home in what might be a retirement game; don't discount the idea that he could go all Max McGee, albeit without the drinking) and the inconsistent but occasionally spectacular James Jones. I'm not even mentioning Jordy Nelson, who's just been making plays all playoff, or TE Andrew Quarless, who isn't Jermichael Finley, but also isn't terrible. Too many weapons is too many weapons; if Rodgers doesn't go down four times or more, or doesn't turn the ball over a couple of times, the Steelers will not win this game.

Which leads us to the forgotten men in the Packer equation: RBs James Starks, Brandon Jackson and Jon Kuhn. I think they avoid irrelevance in this game, so long as the Pack avoids perfunctory runs in obvious situations, and I also expect them to get sprung for a half-dozen dump-offs, check-downs and sack avoidance moments that will keep Rodgers out of third-and-concussion. That's all they really need to do, along with the occasional short yardage success. And while the Packer line isn't the equal of the Jets, it's also not terrible, especially given the speed of Rodgers' release when he's in rhythm, and the willingness of the Packer WRs (Driver especially, though star WR Greg Jennings also will put himself in harm's way) to run a slant or twelve. (And yes, that play in particular is the single biggest reason why aggro DB play has swung the pendulum too far towards the offense. But I digress.)

On the other side of the ball, it's your basic game of lower margins means lower acceptable levels of error. If QB Ben Roethlisberger misfires on first down, it's a big problem, because second down is a 3 to 6 yard Rashard Mendall run, and third is shotgun and diceyness. When GB has that problem, it's much less serious, because second can easily be a 15 to 25 yard completion to the WRs, especially in a de facto indoor arena. CB Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams will take some of the terror out of WR Mike Wallace, and while the Steelers have promising young players of their own at the 3 through 5 WR slots, they aren't quite ready to take the full load.

The Packer pass rush also has to be a serious worry for the Steelers here. LB Clay Mathews has been a terror in the Packers' run, and it's not as if the Steelers offensive line defines dominance. They are disciplined enough to stay in their lanes -- note that they limited the damage Eagles QB Mike Vick was able to do on the ground in their first round win, and that QB Jay Cutler didn't make any plays with his legs before getting hurt in the NFC Championship Game -- and come from inventive angles of their own. Roethlisberger has Hero Syndrome, given his size and durability; he can make mistakes with the ball. Against this offense, on this track, that's going to be fatal.

Finally, there's the factor that swung me, once and for all, to the Pack. C Maurkice Pouncey will either watch this game, on crutches from the sideline, or not finish it, since a high ankle sprain that puts a man on crutches is not something you recover from in two weeks. Replacement C Doug Legursky is a competent player, but he's not Pouncey. He's also the backup for any lineman that might need to leave this one. So any tweak gets the Steelers down to the seventh best OL on the roster, and against the imagination of Packers DC Dom Capers, that's a recipe for heartbreak. You aren't going to see Mendenhall go for more than 80 to 85 yards in this game, or the Steelers hold the ball for 35 to 40 minutes. Not that such things are realistic in the super-delayed game format, where a third of the audience is watching for the ads. Yeesh.

Had this game happened without a bye, I think I might have taken Pittsburgh. Rodgers was more or less concussed in the second half of that Bears game. Had it been outdoors, I think they win; Green Bay really is a dome team in winter's clothing. Had Pouncey been available, I think they win; Mendenhall could have gone for the 120 he'd need to limit Rodgers' chances, especially later in the game, when the Packer WRs start making yards in big chunks. (Neither team is terribly prone to big positive plays in special teams, which is always a bit of a mystery about the Steelers; for a team that drafts and develops as well as they do, particularly at reserve LB, you'd think they'd be better at kick coverage. But anyway.)

But with all of the 50-50 moments against them -- Pouncey, dome, Polamalu, Rodgers rested and the Pack getting its act together in short yardage -- I don't see the Packers scoring less than 24 points. Or the Steelers scoring a lot more than that. It will be close, it will be great, and at the end, the Packers will win, and cover. Packers 31, Steelers 24.

Last week: 2-0

Year to date: 125-128-15

Past Super Bowls: 1-3

Career: 406-405-15