(I'm going to assume that if you are reading this blog, you've heard that Plaxico Burress shot himself by accident in a nightclub vestibule last night. If this is news to you, I know, amazing, isn't it? Positively Vickian.)
With the obvious felon and stupidity moment of one Plaxico Burress, there's the small but telling point... are the Giants better off without him, not just for the off the field stuff, but just from a talent standpoint?
Let's go to the numbers.
Without his nominal #1 weapon today, on the road for an important division game in Washington, Eli Manning... went 21 of 34 for 305 yards, the first time he had broke the 300-yard mark in a long, long time. The 'Skins stacked the line (the Giants ran it 31 times for 101 yards, which is as close to stopping them as anyone gets, really), so Eli just roasted them in the first half, finding the dessicated remains of Amani Toomer for 5-85-1, Domenik Hixson for 5 for 71, and Derrick Ward for 75 yards on screens and check downs.
If they really did miss a deep threat, there was no way of knowing it.
Burress is 31 years old, in his ninth season, and hasn't been healthy for well over a year. He's had all of 35 catches for 454 yards this year and 4 touchdowns. His 12.4 yards per catch is the lowest number in his career. He had one very good game this year, in the opener against Washington. Otherwise, he never get more than 5 balls, and usually just gets to three a game. The history of 31 year old wideouts who can't control their personal lives really isn't good; this is the kind of nonsense that you can get away with in your 20s (see Irving Fryar, Joey Galloway, or Terry Glenn). Making these kind of mistakes on the downside of your career is usually professionally fatal.
Here's the thing about your New York Giants; they have become a personnel machine. And they are better off right now, especially since they seem to be using the Plax Mess as just one more motivational tool, seeing what Mario Manningham, Sinorice Moss, Hixson and Steve Smith has to bring to the table, rather than a broken-down felon and head case.
This isn't like the Eagles when Terrible Owens went off the reservation, and they had no better ideas from the back-ups. Smith and Hixson may be better than Burress even before he went NRA on his leg, and certainly after. This may be a mild embarrassment now, but the simple fact of the matter is that the idiot just did his team a favor.
Today's list is more than open to your addition, and was written while watching the surprising Broncos win over the Jets. Feel free to add yours in the comments, as always.
In today's game, the Jets went 0 for 3 on fourth down, and in every case, it was short yardage and the play was a Brett Favre incompletion where, despite Thomas Jones running for 138 yards on 16 carries. There really is something wrong with Eric Mangini in games like this one, honestly. I thought they had gotten away from this after putting together a long winning streak from running the ball well; at the very least, it's hard to imagine how a coach would become completely one dimensional on a day where your star back is having a big day. But the price of genius isn't very big these days, and with the Steelers eviscerating the Patriots today, it's not even going to hurt them.
Last night at the casino, I sit myself down to a guy in a McNabb jersey. He had been to the game the previous night. I asked him, as part of the usual talk you'd have with a total stranger, whether he thought the team had a chance against the Giants next week in New York. And his response was a classic Philly Fan moment.
"Yeah, I think they'll win, but I don't think they'll make the playoffs. They are going to win just so enough games to really screw our draft position."
He was one of two people at the table who I took a lot of chips from, of course.
This Horrible Cassandra-Esque Power of Knowing the Grim Future is also common among NBA fans, writers and commentators, who are all a-twitter about the 2010 NBA free agent class. And I have only one wish for these people.
Please put yourself into a medical facility now, so that we can be saved from your nonsensical blatherings for the next 500-odd days. Especially the part about how speculation in this fashion is good for the game and the fans, since it gives us all something wonderful to talk about (LeBron to the Knicks! LeBron to the Nets! LeBron to the Pistons! LeBron to Europe! Oooh, aaahhh, I'm all a tingle!) while we are not, you know, ACTUALLY PAYING ATTENTION TO THE FREAKING GAMES THAT ARE IN FRONT OF US.
There is a disease among sports telecasters, commentators, and to a far lesser extent, bloggers, but only if you consider Bill Simmons to be a blogger. That disease involves being so wrapped up in being a Sharp (in the wrestling lingo), instead of a mark.
Marks, you see, ACTUALLY WATCH THE GAMES. We care about whether our team is winning in the here and now, because we don't really care to think about the future; we care to exist in the actual moment, where LeBron James is the best player on a top 5 NBA team, instead of later, where he might be the best player on a *different* top 5 NBA team.
Sharps, on the other hands, know about the salary cap. They're certain that they would be better at running a franchise than the people who do this for a living. (One suspects they are also the same people who know best about how to run the government.)
Look, I *get* the temptation to think ahead, especially if you are a fan of a team without anything too spectacular to think about right now. I've made my bones that the Eagles need to move on from the Reid Era, and I'm not changing that tune just because they finally won a night game. I'm not even going to change that tune if they beat New York next week. Hell, I'm prepared to call for Reid's resignation this year into February if I have to.
But this whole wankery of wanting to be Virtual GM and run trade simulations and speculate endlessly about what's going to happen in the far future... well, that way lies madness, people. That way lies three-year Presidential election campaigns and fan bases that can't be happy with anything but a championship, rather than the simple and elegant pleasure of a team wining more than you thought they would, or developing young talent.
So if you're feeling a backlash against the We're Always Doomed People, or the This Season is Meaningless People... well, good. Feel free. Call me on it when I do it, even.
Because if you live your entire life waiting for something great to happen, you'll have wasted an awful lot of your life missing all of the things that are actually really good.
And that's all I've got to say about that. (At least until the next time that someone brings up their mock draft and free agent boards...)
So hey. I've got a little time off from the Thanksgiving holidays. And I've been good, too, with a ton of work done at the day job. For the year, I'm up in my house game, and down only a few hundred in casinos. Clearly, it's time to try my hand at a small money hold'em tournament, especially seeing as one of my regulars in the home game has won big at them. And it's off to Atlantic City we go!
The scene was the Showboat, home to a cautionary tale bus terminal, low ceiling garages, somewhat attentive wait staff and big dang poker room where I had harpooned a few whales in cash games before. The regular and I make the drive down and get there around 5ish on Black Friday, and the streets are choked with shoppers. The plan is to play a 1/2 no limit cash game until the tournament, then see what we can do in that. Cost should be $100 for the tourney, and whatever the night holds for us in the cash games.
There's a private tournament happening for a $250 buy-in, and they wind up not having enough people for it. Since that's way too rich for my blood, we choose to stay with our lower money one... but this also means that there's a huge line for the window to get in. There's also, and here's the fun part, one person working, despite the presence of three windows. Outstanding work, Showboat!
I head over to get in line at 6:25. I ask a pit boss about buy-in conditions, but she doesn't know anything about the window. Again, outstanding work, Showboat!
Twenty minutes later, I call my friend on our cell phones, so that he can buy in without taking the line wait. As I get to the window, I'm told by the cashier that -- ha ha! -- I need to be a Total Rewards Cardholder to enter! And no, they don't do that here, they do that down the hall at check-in! Well, what the hell, there's nothing quite like dashing through a crowded casino when you are furious, so I go and get my card and get back to the window, jumping the line... only to be told that registration for said tournament is over. But I can be an alternate! Yay, Showboat!
Forty minutes later, they call for alternates and seat me, along with a whopping three other people; they also deduct $500 from my stack for all of the blinds that I missed thanks to all that fun at the window. We can't wait until the table fills up, you see, we have to go now... and so my pocket queens out of the box don't make nearly as much money as you'd hope, really. I get crap cards for 30 hands, have my blind stolen repeatedly from a guy who's got a big stack and re-raises everything, then get Ace-Jack suited for an Ace-King-8 flop. I push everyone off except a woman who hasn't played a hand all night next to me. On the turn, there's another king, and she's all in. I think it over for a minute and fold, she nicely shows me her Ace-King, and we go to break down 4K chips and short-stacked. Fun!
After the break, I get A-10 suited. The guy to my left goes in for 2K, and the whale goes for 3K. I figure it's now or never, especially considering the cards I've been getting, so I go all-in. The non-whale folds, the whale calls, and his jacks stand up. And thus ends that fun 90 minutes.
My buddy and ride is still live in the tournament, so it's back to the cash games for me... and it's one of those nights where you feel like you're broadcasting your cards on your forehead, along with the flashing DONKEY sign. I get about 10 good hands in the next four hours, win on three of them, lose on the rest, lose a little more than I was really prepared to lose, and become more or less convinced that, like golf, poker is something I enjoy but probably need to stop playing, if only for the sake of my sanity and bank account.
My buddy craps out of the tournament in 16th place, which is to say, after a lot of play, but no payday. He also gets hammered in the cash game, and we drive home knowing that the Bus Terminal of Broken Dreams exists not just for people without cars, but also for all of us, really.
(Translation: I'll go back in January, assuming that the house game doesn't wreck me. .. and, um, not to Showboat. Seats open for next Friday night, folks!)
The words of Stephon Marbury, a non-playing NBA player who is going to make more in this single year of refusing to provide service than anyone reading this blog will make in their entire life.
The NY Times reports that the Knicks' refusal to waive Marbury outright, seeing how he won't play and they are on the hook for his $21.9 million this year, is "costing them in the court of public opinion." You see, the fact that there are only two healthy guards on the roster (Nate Robinson, the third, is banged up, and Cuttino Mobley, the fourth, hasn't reported since their salary dump move of Zach Randolph to the Clips since the Knicks have subsequently discovered that he's got a heart problem -- shocking, isn't it, that there is a player on the Clippers with a heart problem)... well, the public blames the Knicks for this whole thing.
If only they had treated a coach killer, team cancer, bad shooter and defensive liability better, he might be willing to deign the court with his presence right now. And if they only had decided to eat his entire contract so that he could go play for some other franchise (presumably while actually caring, at least in games where he could wreak his terrible vengeance on the Knicks), they could have some replacement level scrub to run around and provide bench minutes until they can get their roster straightened out.
Left out in this remarkable state of affairs -- seriously, have you ever heard of a situation in which the highest paid player in a league might also be its worst actual asset -- is any lingering bitterness or distaste for the people who are really to blame for this.
That'd be Stephon Marbury, who is personally destroying whatever positive public image the NBA might be hoping to generate during a remarkably competitive year with exceptional teams. It'd also be Isiah Thomas, the worst general manager in the history of sports, who traded for and paid out the nose for this waste of sperm and dignity. And it would be Knicks owner James Dolan, who cuts the checks for all of this, and gave Thomas the keys to the vault.
How bad has it gotten? Even Starbury's teammates (Quentin Richardson, for the record) are calling him out now. Funny, but leaving everyone else in the lurch while you make more money than all of them isn't exactly appreciated by the other folks who are, you know, actually attempting to win games. Who would have thunk it?
Oh, and one last thing... Dolan makes his money from Cablevision, the service provider here in the Shooter Space. So I'm to blame, too, and some part of my monthly bill is going to Starbury's coffers. Hell, maybe that's why they raised my bill last month. Damn you, Starbury!
Hey, you're reading the site on Black Friday? You communist. You need to be out there, fighting in the malls, keeping our economy from utter collapse. It's all on you, part-time Mets owner, and I will not cotton to your disinterest in pulling your fair share.
Well, OK, maybe that's too hasty on my part. You could still be buying something online, perhaps from one of FTT's fine stable of advertisers? They also represent the Christmas spirit, in that nothing quite says Christmas like whatever the site's ad feed is pulling in today. Ho ho ho!
Oh, and here's your link for the day. It manages to connect cankles and oral sex with the Detroit Lions in a way that I think will surprise you.
So the mean fat man that makes Mommy and all of us kids cry came back over tonight, and I have to say, it was surprisingly nice. He brought great presents for all of the kids, told funny jokes, didn't touch us when no one was looking, didn't eat all of the food of our plates and didn't make us sit in the corner and cry.
I think he even washed himself so he didn't smell so much like failure and stale Krispy Kreme.
I have no idea what made him clean up his act, but Mommy was very happy. It was almost like the old days, when he used to take us to nice places and everything seemed so much better. You know, back when those neighbor kids wearing the stars, Indian heads and letters on their clothes seemed real jealous of us.
Some of the kids want to think it's all going to be all right, and that the fat man won't touch us anymore, now that Mommy told him to stop. But I don't trust the fat man. I think he's still going to do bad things to us later, and that he's just trying to fool us into thinking it's all OK.
I mean, I *hope* he's not going to do that anymore...
At 3:46 pm, with a minute left in what turns out to be the Lions' worst-ever Thanksgiving loss -- and man, that takes some work, really -- Phil Simms told the national television audience that coming to Detroit every year on the holiday was "still fun."
Um, for who?
Honestly, NFL, this is a tradition that needs to be stopped. There is no reason to subject the world to the Lions as the only pro football game that can be viewed at this time. They are horrible. They have nearly always been horrible. They will continue to be horrible. They should never be shown to anyone but their fans and the fans of the opposing team.
And if they have to continue to be on the holiday, at least put them on NFLN at night, which is where terrible games belong.
Today's link is good and thankful, and I'd say more about this, but I'm fading fast here. More over the weekend when we can get to it, and probably some significant about of TNF coverage...
Congratulations, Fellow Taxpayer! Thanks to the continuing bailout efforts of people who really, truly believe in capitalism until it fails to make them money, we're going to give Citibank some free money, under the theory that they are too big to fail.
Let's see... some Saudis who act as the de facto mob in a legal vig racket have actually *failed* at this, basically because they couldn't leave well enough alone and just limit themselves to the wildly profitable business of predatory credit cards, and had to move into predatory mortgages as well. (Full disclosure: Citi has had their claws on my mortgage checks in the past few years, and the entire collapse of the credit markets can be traced entirely to their acceptance of my radioactive dollars. Citi, Countrywide, American, Washington Mutual... I have brought you all low with my timely payments. You're next, Bank of America and Chase.)
Now, here's the fun part. Back when times were good (oh, two years ago), Citi bought the naming rights to the new Shea Stadium for 20 years and $400 million. At least, this is the number I remember, and just like Henry Paulson at the Treasury asking for $700 billion, I'm sticking with the number because it sounds good. We're all making it up as it goes along, folks!
(A quick side note: Five Tool Tool is undergoing a severe financial crisis of its own, which is in no way due to the exorbitant salary that we pay its lead writer. As I'm sure you will agree, this blog, like Citi, is too big to fail, and merits a full multi-million dollar bailout of our toxic debt from Uncle Sucker. I'll be testifying in Congress in a week, with my somber suit, eyedrops for Real Tears, and utter lack of personal shame. Wish me luck!)
The Mets, of course, aren't going to give back that money; that would be Crazy Talk, especially now that in this economy, paying for the naming rights to a stadium, which was never a defensible idea on the merits (witness the parade of failed company names that have been attached to stadia in the last decade), has become Wildly Irresponsible. And Wildly Irresponsible is just a wee bit grating when you've moved into the Free Money From You Rubes section of the program.
Now, personally, I don't want the Mets to give the money back. What the hell, it'll just go to people whose idea of a good investment is to mail me balance transfer checks and new credit card offers on a twice a day basis until I die.
I just want a commensurate say in the day to day operations of the Mets.
After all, we have the technology to make this happen. If the Citipay is, let's say 10% of the club's income for 2009 (a reasonable bet, given their high gate revenue and television ad dollars), we should be able to control 10% of the roster via Web voting. And after the Mets got rick-rolled last year, I'm sure they'll be thrilled to open themselves up to this again.
Or not. Screw 'em. They're getting paid.
10% of the roster is 2.5 active players. I'll settle for their late inning relief situation. Let's face it, they're probably going to do something big and dumb there by chasing after a K-Rod or Huston Street. However, given that the majority of the voting bloc will come from outside the NY metropolitan area, and that we don't want Our Investment to be too expensive, I'm sure that the majority of us will agree that they need someone with more big-game experience, but at a reasonable price.
So, ladies and gentlemen, please put your hands together for the latest Met to take the ball in the ninth, brought to you by the American taxpayer... Joe Mesa! (Buck up, Mets Fan. He can't be any worse than what you had last year, right?)
Since we also have access to another player under the terms, we should also get ourselves a lefty. Here, I'm going to be merciful, and pay to bring back fan favorite John Franco. All of your old uniform purchases are good again, Mets Fan! You're welcome! And don't bitch, or we're going for Jesse Orosco.
So, Joe and John, go and make us proud. Or, at the very least, happy for our investment.
Does this make you want to buy some piece of consumer electronics? It might to the Germans, but then again, they also probably got into that creepy Heineken Keg Girl thing from a year ago. (The blog title is their tag line, translated.) Perhaps if Futuristic Borgish Chick is available. There's always things around the house to do...
Today's link is a nice piece of research that owes a firm debt to site contributor Original Mookie, who has a particularly good memory for the personnel mistakes of the Miami Dolphins. Without him, this wouldn't have been nearly as good. Go click and thank him in the comments.
The NFL will experiment by offering a game next month in 3D in theaters, but the technology may be eventually ticketed for in-home viewing. The Dec. 4 presentation will air a live feed of the Thursday night San Diego vs. Oakland game, available only to "invited guests."
I hear LaDanian Tomlinson is still quick in 3-D. Reality, not so much.
Here's a Mr. Science moment from this here blog that you can actually use in your daily life. I'll try not to make it a habit.
Quick quiz. You are out somewhere in a noisy setting, and get a call that you have to take on your cell phone. Being unable to go somewhere quiet and unwilling to let it go to voicemail, what do you do?
Well, if you are like most people, you curl up into a ball, stick a finger in the ear that you aren't taking the call with, and have a thoroughly unsatisfying experience of not hearing the person who called you.
Believe it or not, there's a better way.
You see, our brains work differently than what we're trying to compensate for here. We do have the ability to focus on a single voice in a hubbub of other sounds; we do it for just about all of the speech that we hear, in natural stereo.
The phone companies know this, and have engineered the phone calls you get to not just be about the call. Both ends receive background noise, both from their own phone and the person they are talking to. It generally makes for a better call. Sticking a finger in one ear just means that you are going from stereo to mono, and makes the call worse.
So, if you are having trouble hearing the person you are speaking to, try this instead: cover the receiver. That will cut down on the background noise without losing the stereo effect, and give you more of what you are trying to hear.
A similar effect happens in this week's NFL picks. The short week requires focus and a distressing amount of thinking about the Lions. You can also add the sheer thankful knowledge that this is the last Thanksgiving you'll have to watch Andy Reid waddle his way around the field. Or, at least, so we all pray.
And with that, on to the ever-faster and faster picks!
* * * * * TENNESSEE at Detroit (+11)
We're really starting to get close to Perfection here, folks. Last week saw the Lions grab a big early lead against a mostly punchless Bucs team on the road. But displaying the true heart of an anti-champion, they seized the toilet bowl ring and flushed it with both hands. This week, they get the no longer perfect Titans at home, in their annual tradition of making everyone who watches NFL games wonder why in hell the Lions have to be on our television every year like this. It'll be as bad as always, but on the bright side, you won't have to watch very much of it at all.
Oh, and bonus points to LemDale White for freely admitting that if he's not getting carries, he's pretty much not paying attention to the game. Way to go, LemDale! With that attitude and your ever-increasing Fat Loadedness, you won't have to worry about watching many NFL games after, say, 2010. In Seattle, TJ Duckett is nodding with slow approval, content to know that his role as Last Fat Useless RB is secure.
Titans 24, Lions 6
Seattle at DALLAS (-13)
Everything is all better now in Big D! At least until they have to go on the road for a playoff game, completely crap the bed, then have Adam "That's Mister Spectacular Waste of Sperm and Dignity To You" Jones get into a slap fight for the ages with Terrible Owens. Tony Romo will attempt to play peacekeeper and bruise a hangnail, causing him to miss the entire 2009 season, leading to the complete and utter collapse of Jerry Jones' vast criminal enterprise.
But that's all *later*. This week, they'll pound the Seabags at home, because the Seabags never travel well even when they aren't horrible, and because the NFL always gives the Cowboys a bye on Thanksgiving. Them, and whoever plays the Lions.
Dallas 31, Seahawks 16
ARIZONA at Philadelphia (-3)
Is there a number I would not take the Cardinals at in this game? Well, it is a bad match-up for them, what with the long travel, short week, and opponent that is "best" at stopping the passing game. They also have a secondary that frequently gives up big plays, and a defense that's best at rushing the passer -- the one thing that the Eagles have been more or less good at preventing on a consistent basis all season long. And with Cap'n Andy "If There Is A Wrong Decision To Make, I'm Going To Make It" Reid going back to Donovan McNabb for the start in this one, maybe Number Five has one big final Last Hurrah And Screw You Fat Man game in him.
In talking about The Benching in IM the other day, site contributor Dirty Davey talked about the theory that Bloatboy Reid had to make the move because McNabb had permanently lost the locker room after the Chunky Super Bowl, and after Terrible Owens left town with his balls in one of those little Chinese hand exercise cases. Even if this *were* the case, however, didn't the Fatso GM do the Bloated Sack Coach a terrible, terrible disservice by keeping him around after that? Wouldn't it have been far, far better to move him on immediately afterwards, keeping the star WR and getting us to the next QB while Brian Westbrook was still, you know, a football player?
There is no way to spin the events of the last month to be anything but this: Andy Reid is trying to get fired. Asking for it. Begging for it. Expect him to show up in Week 14 wearing a tutu with diapers, under the theory that it makes his players feel young and pretty. Or that he's going to an All Wildcat offense, with AJ Feeley as his new star #1 WR. We're through the looking glass here, people.
Oh, and Tim Hightower vultures three touchdowns, and Boldin and Fitzgerald combine for 250 yards by being Big And Damned Strong; if you hated seeing what Plex Burress did to this team, you're really not going to like either of the the Cardinals' monsters. Perhaps a shootout, and maybe we'll see Andy finally eat his challenge flag. You know he wants to. Cardinals 38, Eagles 27
San Francisco at BUFFALO (-7)
Great googly moogly, who saw 50-plus points coming out of the Bills on the road? Those I-AA Chiefs don't want anyone to forget that but for one slip-up against the Broncos, they'd be right there in the mix for Historically Awful Team, despite Tyler Thigpen getting twiggy with it for roto players. That's what you get when your defense consists of 11 guys trying to get a turnover, rather than, you know, play defense. Oh, and it also doesn't hurt that Herm Edwards is also attempting to see what he needs to go to get fired. Herm, I suggest some good pro-Nazi sentiments. It's extreme, but it'll get the job done.
For the Bills. Trent Edwards woke up just enough to make Lee Evans' roto owners put down the needle. Meanwhile, the Niners wasted early chances on the road in Dallas, then got torched on big plays en route to the big loss. Count on way too much attention from Chris Berman on this one, because the game meant something 15 years ago. For him, that's positively recent.
(Oh, and give me the home team, just because the West Coast Team is going to the East Coast time zone for a 1pm EST game, which makes them lucky just to put on their uniforms correctly, never mind play a football game. Honestly, NFL players on all West coast teams? You suck.)
Bills 24, Niners 16
INDIANAPOLIS at Cleveland (+4.5)
Oh, NFL, you so had your chance to evade the Manning Menace. Now here they are, 7-4 and with three very beatable teams in the next three weeks. They might not even be out of the division yet, if the Titans decide to gag up the Thanksgiving game. And they play the Browns in a game that's plainly shocking, seeing as it's not in prime time, with the home team flip-flopping between the not-ready Brady Quinn and the not-good Derek Anderson.
Can the Browns win this game by simply putting the ball on the ground 30 to 40 times with Jerome Harrison, rather than Jamal Lewis? Of course. Are the Colts really all that good yet, just because they squeaked out another last-minute win on the road last week in San Diego? Of course not. But what I wrote last week still holds; they are doing it with mirrors, and that's all you need when the opposing coach is highly susceptible. (For the record, I think Romeo Crennel is more of your classic backwoods rube, while Norv Turner is more of a paste-eating toddler. However, this is one of those things on which men of good conscience can disagree.)
Colts 27, Browns 17
Carolina at GREEN BAY (NL)
I heard that some honk over at the World Wide Lemur, as part of some dubious site betting game, would up losing out on a million dollar payday thanks to the Panthers spitting the bit against the Falcons last week. Now, far be it for me to laugh at another man's misfortune, but, um...
BWAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAA!
Seriously, dude? You put yourself in large jeopardy on the right arm of Jake Delhomme, a man that threw four picks against Oakland and had back to back games where he didn't break 100 yards, in a road dome? What's next, finding out what Chris Weinke is doing with his life and throwing some big dollars behind that? Heck, I'm sure Rich Kotite is just a shot of confidence away from turning things around at the Circuit City, too. (Don't tell him. He's really counting on this for the holidays.)
This week, the Panthers continue their Fraud Exposure road tour in Green Bay, where the Packers are coming off a turnover-fest loss in New Orleans that ruined all of their good momentum after a Bear crushing. I'm looking for the home team to immolate the weak road 'Cats with Mssrs. Rodgers, Grant and Jennings.
And by the way, screw all those people who want to see Giants-Jets in the Super Bowl. Give me Packers-Jets instead, if only so we can destroy any notion that Packer Fan really has much lingering good feelings over Saint Brett. Two weeks of effigy burnings and grilled pork products might provoke a spectacular arterioscleretic killing spree, but you don't break a media meme without breaking a few fatality records. (Of course, this also assumes the Packers actually make the playoffs, which is far from an even bet.)
Packers 31, Panthers 9
MIAMI at St. Loius (NL)
Back to the punk beating grind for the Dolphins, who didn't much like it when they had to step up in class for the Patriots last week in Miami. They've still got a puncher's chance for a low wild-card, which would honestly be a fine outcome after last year, thanks to their kitten-soft schedule.
As for the Rams, it's not like they are offering much up in the way of resistance these days. Could we see an interim coach firing this year? C'mon, Rams Management, give us something memorable for your NFL Films retrospective. I can just hear Harry Kalas now. "2008 was a season of transition... and transition... for the St. Louis Rams."
Dolphins 26, Rams 17
New Orleans at TAMPA BAY (NL)
If the NFC South has taught us anything -- and you can be excused from my season-long record here into thinking that it hasn't -- it's that home field matters a lot. If you could combine the Saints' offense with the Bucs' defense, you'd have the other top seed in the conference opposite the Giants, and a much more interesting conference championship opponent. Instead, you see what the relative value of offense versus defense, at least for the real world.
In this game, count on Jeff Garcia to dink and dunk his way to around 20 points, and for the Bucs to put the Saints into enough long third downs to force a mistake or two. Because as good as Drew Brees is, he's still a bit pick-prone. He'd have to be, considering that he throws the ball something like 50 times a game, isn't very tall, and relies on a million receivers to all run the right route.
Finally, there's this. If you think the Saints are on a roll now and going to rattle off a bunch of wins, consider that tonight's win over the Pack was the first time all year that they've won two games in a row. Time for Ugly to beat up on Fun. (Multiple jokes about my first marriage deleted here, in that ex-wife jokes say more about you than the ex.)
Bucs 24, Saints 16
NY GIANTS at Washington (+3.5)
One has to wonder, really, what it's like in Giant Land these days. Dallas is deluding themselves into thinking that a mini winning streak and a reinstated Adam Jones won't somehow combust in the playoffs. Philadelphia self-destructed with more drama than any sane man can stand. And here's the Redskins, suddenly looking gritty but ordinary again, starting mediocre wideouts and riding Clinton Portis too hard, because they have to for any kind of shot at the playoffs.
This game is another one of those lines that I don't quite get; this Giants team has done nothing but win, and more or less control every game they've played, with the exception of the increasingly inexplicable Browns loss. In this division game, they'll do what they always do; grind the opponent into a fine paste, and hear the lamentations of their women. You've got to respect that sort of thing.
Oh, and Jeff Lurie? Steve Spagnuolo would make for a fine next coach. Let's take a chunk out of this organization.
Giants 27, Redskins 20
Atlanta at SAN DIEGO (-5)
Here's one of those games that the Chargers win just to fool people into thinking they are some kind of sleeping giant of goodness. In reality, what they are is a team that is struggling with a terrible coach, an overrated running back, and a quarterback that seems to throw footballs laced with helium.
The Falcons are 7-4 and on the periphery of the playoffs; a road win here would be immense for them, and maybe I'm not giving them enough credit as road warriors yet. But in a Vengeance Game against his old team, I don't see Michael Turner getting it done, and the big Charger wideouts are a bad matchup for them. They've had a wonderful year, but they aren't ready to make it all the way to the playoffs in their first year.
Chargers 27, Falcons 21
Pittsburgh at NEW ENGLAND (-1)
After two straight 400-yard passing games, with a good mess of running yards added in, extremely stupid people are wondering if the Patriots would dare to choose Matt Cassel over Tom Brady.
Cassel is younger, cheaper and healthier, and if he somehow takes the Patriots all the way to the Super Bowl, maybe it's defensible. Besides, it's not like the Patriots aren't good and heartless. After this week's game, where the Steelers will fail to protect the quarterback, feel exposed on running back depth, and play close but lose, that dumbness will only grow. (Don't worry, Dreamboat fans. It'll stop when Cassel loses a home playoff game against a hot wild-card. I'm thinking that'll be the Colts, just to really make you hurt.)
Patriots 20, Steelers 16
'enver at NY JETS (-7.5)
The very worst division leader ever lost at home to Oakland last week, and no, it wasn't even close. Color me shocked, really, considering how bad the Raiders have been and how much the White Rat enjoys pounding them, but perhaps JeMarcus Russell isn't completely hopeless after all, especially when Darren McFadden has a spark. Or maybe I'm calling 'enver that for, well, a reason.
Feel free, if you want, to seriously reconsider those whole Jay Culter to Brandon Marshall is the new Tom Brady to Randy Moss meme that dumb people were pushing in the first month of the season. I have no idea what happened to Eddie Royal in this game, but from the little that I watched, the Broncos' offense consists of a quick hitting running play that doesn't get enough and two plays of Cutler throwing the ball all over the place.
The Jets are in rarefied air here, with a big home number to deal with, a growing amount of wildly premature Jets-Giants Super Bowl hype, and a tremendous running game in Thomas Jones and Leon Washington behind Faneca, Woody and other desperate men who are trying to make sure Saint Brett can't chuck his way out of a win. I don't think this will end well; Favre has, after all, ended his last 216 playoff appearances with back-breaking picks that people have somehow talked themselves out of remembering. But for this week, they're going to roll in a shootout (assuming the weather isn't crappy). Jets 38, Broncos 24
Kansas City at OAKLAND (Now with an O!) (-3)
Somewhere out there, I am sure, there exists a sports gambler with a firm sense of conviction as to who to take in this dogfest. Clearly it's the home team, coming off the big road win in Denver, as opposed to the I-AA Chiefs, who somehow gave up 50+ points to a Bills team that looked like they were on their way to playing the third quarterback, just from having no better ideas.
But before you get too happy, Raider Fan, keep in mind that you are coached by a person that had no idea how to actually react to offensive touchdowns last week, and that the game is at home, in front of people who might not know how to act in the presence of an actual positive offensive performance.
Also, the Chiefs can score. They just can't defend anyone.
So, yes, I'm going with Oakland, but if you are putting real money down on this one, Seek Help. Quickly. Raiders 27, Chiefs 20
CHICAGO at Minnesota (-3.5)
Both teams coming off good wins here, with the Vikes getting it done in Jacksonville while the Bears enjoyed their de facto bye in St. Louis. How hard was it for the men from Chi-town? There fans were called out for not making enough noise. In St. Louis. Yes, Rams Fan is not putting up much of a fight at this point.
As for the Vikes, they scored 30 points in a game where quarterback Gus Frerotte was 12 for 20 for 120 yards, a pick and no touchdowns. That's what you get when your defense scores early, and the home team gives you two turnovers on their first two plays. They held the Jags to 14 carries for 35 yards, got two touchdowns on the ground, and more or less just ground them into paste. But I don't like their chances of doing it to the Bears, if only because the Bears look like they can throw the ball enough to score 20 points... and the Bears are going to make Frerotte beat them.
Bears 23, Vikings 16
Jacksonville at HOUSTON (-3.5)
One of those MNF games that didn't even look good on paper when it was announced. Both teams are surprisingly poor this year, with the Jaguars' losing all semblance of predictability due to their banged-up offensive line, and the Texans' from the failure of the defense to develop the way they were expected to. It all adds up to more points than you might expect, especially since David Garrard is going to score like a top 10 quarterback this week... but it won't be enough. Too much Steve Slaton, and, more importantly, Andre Johnson.
I'd have more of these, but once Brees hit Colston with the 70-yarder, followed by the Packers falling apart and giving up the long run to Pierre Freaking Thomas, I was toast in a league where, despite having a ton of points, I'm nearly out of the playoff race.
Anger.
Anyway, shootout in New Orleans, and the home crowd and the Saints' secondary made Aaron Rodgers blink first. I can't see either of these teams now making the playoffs, but if they do, either could scare the bejeezus out of a limited, defensive team.
Oh, and save us from the Favre Worship, media. At least until he actually wins a playoff game, ok?
Your list is here, and the discerning reader will note how I'm going to just let loose on the fat jokes at Reid's expense.
This might be unfair and uncaring, given that obesity is a disease, and we're certainly not going to help this man's obvious self-hatred issues with mockery.
This, of course, assumes that I want to help the man. I don't. I want him away from my football team.
Just when I was going to be all bitter about the Eagles ending their season before every other team in their division and all but a half dozen or so teams in the entire NFL, Stephen Colbert saves me from despair with his Christmas special.
Great Christmas special, or greatest Christmas special ever? Put me down for Greatest, at least until he makes another one. The man is a genius. Go buy a copy of the DVD for someone you love. (I've been ever so good, really.)
That's Ravens coach Jim Harbaugh, standing up for the guy that used to employ him.
It's not nice when you lie, Jim, even if you have good intentions.
* * * * *
So, just because there's no escaping the discussion of this... well, no, Donovan McNabb wasn't playing very well today. He was far from alone in that. He also had turned the ball over seven times in his last seven quarters, which I guess was one time too many for Eagles coach Andy Reid.
Did he deserve a benching? The points for it.
1) If the quarterback in a West Coast system doesn't play well, you're pretty much out of luck. (Also, that guys that run West Coast systems think they can do it with any QB, but that's a whole 'nother story.)
2) It's not like McNabb has shown enough mobility so far this year as to make that part of his game a clear edge over Kolb.
3) If it works, you've got a spark for the rest of the year.
4) It's highly unlikely that the Ravens had much game-planned for Kolb.
5) There might be something else going on in the locker room, in practice, and behind the scenes. As outsiders, we'll never know.
The points against.
1) If you honestly wanted Kevin Kolb to succeed, giving him his first taste on the road in Baltimore, without any semblance of a running game, is a funny way to show it.
2) When McNabb hit the bench, the team was down three points on the road against what we can all pretty much assume is a better team. No matter how you might fall on this decision, we can all agree on one thing: it didn't work.
3) Yet again, the more effective running back (Correll Buckhalter) got almost no work, while the sad remains of Brian Westbrook did little with more touches. The play calling was also as ridiculous as usual, with 41 passes called against 17 runs. So, um, if you're arguing for Reid's judgment as being a good thing, you've got plenty of legroom on that bus.
(Updated: Buck seemingly got dinged up in the game. He was also one of, um, two running backs available for the game. I have no words for this personnel work, really.)
4) Reports have it that McNabb wasn't even informed of the change at halftime; Reid had the quarterback coach tell his starter. Nice to know the past ten years of service doesn't extend to, well, being a goddamned man about it. Why not text him the message, Andy?
5) There is absolutely no defense for the playcall that led to the 108-yard TAInt that sealed the game and season. (It was second and goal from the two-inch line. They threw. Words fail.)
Cris Collingsworth made the point tonight that while he wouldn't have made the move to McNabb in this game, he also wouldn't go back to him for the rest of the year, so that the team can sees what they have. I'm fairly sure that will be the case, but honestly, in the circle of thoughtful Eagle fandom that I run in, there's less interest in bringing back Reid than there is in bringing back McNabb (and if you want to clean sweep the entire roster, we're not going to complain).
You see, unlike McNabb, I'm pretty sure that Reid hasn't really helped his team win a game in years. Unlike McNabb, Reid does things like franchise LJ Smith, trade for Lo Booker, continues to employ players that cost the team games, can't be trusted with a challenge flag, etc., etc., etc.
Donovan McNabb, if cut loose today, would be employed in the NFL with a similar level of job within a week. Andy Reid, if said the same, would not.
So if you're an Eagle Fan, and you want Reid back next year, you're rooting for them to close the year with Kolb and win.
And if you're an Eagle Fan, and you want McNabb back, you're rooting for them to lose every game with Kolb.
And if you're just hoping for the best thing for the franchise moving forward... hell, I don't know, maybe five more ties.
But as for me, I'll boil this down to its simplest essence. In my points league, I own Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. They'll be starting next week. And I'll be rooting for them.
For the merits of the decision to go to an inexperienced back up quarterback on the road in a three point game.
For the play call of having the inexperienced back up quarterback throwing on second and inches at the opposing 1 yard line, leading to the inevitable 108 yard TAInt.
For the fact that there are two running backs on the entire roster, neither of them healthy, durable, or very good.
For the fact that there isn't a single person in Philadelphia that sees this team doing anything but dropping the rest of its games this year.
For an offensive line that can't convert any short yardage situation.
For the inability to win any close game.
For the inability to win any game at night.
For the fact that when I did an image search for this post, I found tons of pages saying the exact same thing from, well, years ago.
For the fact that I could have, for the most part, written this a week ago.
For your own health, since you seem to react to failure by eating.
For your family, who probably can't be any worse off.
For sports talk radio, so they can find something else to talk about.
For the five to ten players who still seem to give a damn. (Please don't ask me who they are. I'm mostly guessing at this point.)
For the fans of the franchise, who would like to have any lingering good memory of your time.
And for the sake of the nation, who really shouldn't have to look at you on Thanksgiving.
Quit. Like your team, like your brain, like this season.
We won't think any less of you at this point, because it's just not possible.
Far be it for this writer to go into great detail over college football -- only so many hours in the day, really -- but when my alma mater (Syracuse) defeats the Bullet's favored team (Notre Dame), causing site contributor Dirty Davey to chortle with joy because the Irish are his favorite (if more than a little outdated) CFB Hate Object... well, it gets a mention.
Then, after the game was over, Irish Fan decided to note their displeasure by pelting their own team with snowballs. Including several players who were playing their final game there. That's a nice final memory to go off with, isn't it?
This is far from an original note, but there really is no difference for College Fan towards his team's mercenaries than Pro Fan for his. It's their job to win games, and if they don't, you as the fan just get to scorch the earth, really... even though the strong majority of people playing the game at the college level are going no further.
Now, it may very well be that only the presence of snow is the notable thing here; if unhappy home fan has ammo, he's probably flinging it. But still... you stay classy, Irish Fan. A few more dozen moments like this, and you get to be CFB's Philly Fan.
To left is frequent blog hero Stephon Marbury, owner of the largest contract in the NBA this year. He's also someone who, honestly, is authoring one of the greatest thefts in the history of American labor this year.
You see, Stephon isn't a very good basketball player, but he makes up for it by being a much worse human being. While the rest of his teammates have embraced new coach Mike D'Antoni and his up-tempo style to a 7-6 record and an outside shot at the playoffs a year after being unspeakably awful, Stephon's decided it's Time To Be Elsewhere. Mostly because, well, D'Antoni decided first, and didn't give him any minutes.
This week, the Knicks have decided to lose the high-priced parts of their team that had any market value at all (Zach Randolph and Jamal Crawford). With the new members of their team not yet present, D'Antoni went to Starbury and more or less gave him the opportunity for meaningful minutes, for the first time this year. It's obvious that there is no real role for him in New York, but what the hey, he's playing for his next contract. Best to show that he's still got something to offer here.
Instead, Marbury refused to play.
Yeah, let me repeat that. He's getting paid THE MOST MONEY IN THE NBA, but refused to play.
And to think, I thought that NBA didn't have a great union, given how badly they got played in the 50-game lockout year.
Now, a small question for the rest of the Knicks roster... is there some reason why you aren't, for starters, setting his clothes on fire in the locker room? Here you are, playing your guts out, and here's this morose sack of garbage just *sitting* there. How do you not, you know, go to work on that?
There's really no rhyme or reason to this one, which means it just needs to be seen, really. (And who wouldn't say yes to a semi-intelligent subservient proto-human that may also go really well with a good red?)
Mike Mussina announces his retirement, despite being just 30 wins away from 300, and he's the first guy to retire after a 20 win season since Sandy Koufax.
Well, congrats to him, I guess. But will he still stay away in mid-May, when NYY offers him $10 million for a few months of work after the injuries hit?
(Oh, and if anyone really wants to have the serious argument that he isn't a HOFer, go soak your head. 270 wins in a 'roid era, with his best year lost due to the strike, with playoff success and a ton of strikeouts... if you're really arguing against him, you've got some personal vendetta. If he's not a HOFer, neither are the majority of pitchers who are already there.)
Engaged in some darker poerty here, kids. Worth it only to see the X-Game fall again, which might be the best/worst rubbernecking moment in recent sports history, and the single biggest reason why I'm happy to have had relatively earthbound girls...
Last Sunday afternoon as I waited for the Inevitable Death Flu that was a dead-solid lock for me once I saw the Shooter Kids and Wife go down, I took stock of my Sunday.
The points keeper auction league, my most important roto moment, was ringing up pinball points on Warner to Boldin, locking up the Worst to First recovery from Week One.
The work head to head league turned around as soon as Steve Slaton took a long one to the house; I'm very likely to make the playoffs there.
The friends head to head league was locked up as soon as Tony Romo rescued Marion Barber from 12 in the box purgatory. In that league, I'm on target for a first round bye.
The picks were trending on the positive side of .500 for another week, as I continued to do the Lord's work and pay the rent, like Joey Knish.
And then, there were my Eagles, gagging worse than I would a few hours later, looking positively stricken by anything as daunting as a 3rd and 1 against a terrible 1-8 team, in a Disgust Game for the Ages.
As a parent (and, heh heh, someone who has poor souls that report to me at the day job), I am frequently struck by the need to compartmentalize. Many (mostly younger) people don't get this; they react with full ferver and bomb-throwing fury to stuff that pisses them off, even if the rest of their day is going reasonably well. Hell, I did this myself, and can do it again at any moment, especially if I want to think about Andy Reid.
But you just can't do it. You've got to compartmentalize, limit the damage or irritation that you are going to feel from a certain negative stimulus. In short, delude yourself that it's no big deal.
Because, well, most of the time, it isn't.
As I write this, I'm on the train next to some Unbearable Douchebag of a guy who is having some major life moment on his cell phone. It's impossible not to hear his conversation, even as I focus on the writing; his train wreck of a relationship is on display for all to see. If my daughters ever get involved with someone like him, I'm not going to be very good about it. He just strikes me as a world-class manipulative prick. (And yes, yes, yes, I was this guy, I'm sure, in my teens, and so were you, too. Youth is wasted on the young, but crotchety is something we can all enjoy.)
This picks column also comes to you during a week where I'm swamped with work that's got to all get done before the Thanksgiving break despite being short-staffed, during a time when FTT really hasn't gotten the kind of site traffic that I've been hoping for, when the prospect of a performance bonus from the day job seems laughable not from my own effort or effectiveness but from the greater economic nightmare that's going on, and when I'm probably not going to be able to swing a vacation due to a lack of the green stuff.
It also comes with the full knowledge that, win or lose on Sunday, I'm losing with my Eagles. If they win, I feel stupid for throwing them under the bus, but only a little, because it's impossible to imagine that they're going to win with an effective running game, an effective run defense, and superior coaching.
If they lose, I'll have probably watched every snap, deluded myself into thinking that they might just be a play or two away from pulling it out (because, well, every NFL team is always just a play or two from pulling it out) and just generally wallowed in it, like a homeless man in his own sick. (Yes, last Sunday was quite memorable.)
On the other hand... if I win a roto league, it's worth significant coin to me. If the Eagles win the Super Bowl, it isn't.
No amount of money that I spend can make the Eagles win.
No amount of anger that I feel with their performance will make them get any better.
Hell, given the waiting list for Eagles seasons tickets and the NFL ratings, there's nothing that *any* Eagles Fan can do, unless their last name is Lurie.
And things could be worse, of course; we could root for the Raiders.
So screw 'em. I'm going to enjoy this season anyway.
So let's fire up something that RAWKS...
and let's dim the house lights and light the flash pots. It's time for the business of show.
(Because, well, I'm in my compartment. And Douchebag Guy just got up and left.)
And with that, on to the picks!
* * * * * Cincinnati at PITTSBURGH (-10.5)
The game you won't see (because it's on the odious NFLN) is a game you won't want to see. Pittsburgh got the hard-fought win it needed in the snow against the Chargers -- and didn't you know that game was going the Steel City's way as soon as you saw the precip? -- while the Bengals missed the upset win on a missed long field goal, the first missed long field goal against the Eagles in the last 45 years. (I exaggerate, but only just.)
The Bengals tend to play well in this inter-divisional matchup, but they don't have the defensive line to cause the Steelers real problems, and since this is one of the five games a year that Willie Parker is healthy, expect the home team to be early and often.
Finally, there's this. Do you really want to trust Ryan Fitzpatrick to cover any number on the road? Steelers 31, Bengals 10
Houston at CLEVELAND (-3.0)
Houston actually led in the second half against the still-not-great Colts, but squandered the opportunity as Peyton Manning picked them apart en route to 33 points. It tells you just how good Manning was that the Texans could only get the ball to Steve Slaton 14 times; it also tells you how good he is that he turned that into 156 yards and a second half lead.
I really wanted to take the Texans in this game, especially since the Browns have the short week and an unfortunate loyalty to the old and slow Jamal Lewis. But Sage Rosenfels on the road is just not something I can do. Deluded Browns Fans will realize that, no, everything would not have been better had they only started Brady Quinn all year, but it won't happen this week. (I'd be a lot more impressed with him if he didn't look ready to soil himself whenever the defense brings pressure in the red zone.)
Cleveland 26, Texans 20
San Francisco at DALLAS (-10.0)
Look, the only way the Cowboys aren't winning this game is if they spend the entire game throwing just to Owens, so he can be all happy with a Vengeance Game against his original team, with lots of spikes on the 50-yard star. And... as painful as it is for me to admit this... even Wade Phillips isn't that stupid.
(Besides, Jerry Jones is going to insist on throwing some balls to Roy Williams, too, so that the announcers can talk about how smart he is. Jerry is an absolute regular season genius.)
For the Niners, expect turnovers from Shaun Hill, frustration for Frank Gore, and lots of reaction shots and thinly veiled hopes from the announcers for a Singletary meltdown and de-pantsing. The final score will be embarrassment enough.
Cowboys 38, Niners 13
Tampa Bay at DETROIT (+8.5)
You've got to admire the Lions; they aren't losing every game by the same way. Last week, they took another early lead, and considering how badly the Panthers' Jake Delhomnme have played in the last few games, many suicide pool players were probably gripping hard. But they decided to fold like a wet noodle against the run game, and soon, everything was back to normal.
Meanwhile, the Bucs rode Jeff Garcia's Mario-esque Scamper Power to a grindy little 19-13 win over the Vikings at home. At 7-3, they are right in the thick of things in the NFC South, and a very good bet for a wild-card spot.
So why am I taking the Lions to cover again?
Call it a hunch. Or consider the fact that the Bucs are going to have to rely on an odd committee of running backs, with nominal starter Earnest Graham done for the year, Warrick Dunn about to show the world why he doesn't get starter carries any more and Cadillac Williams always broken-down. Garcia never goes downfield, which allows even this bad defense to look a little better at home, since they don't have to defend more than fifteen yards down the field. Add that up to the occasional flash of competence from the Lions' running game (Kevin Smith will survive 2008, which isn't something you will say of too many of his teammates), and the fact that Daunte Culpepper now has had three weeks of practice to throw the ball up high to Calvin Johnson...
Well, it's hard for any team to go winless.
They might still, but this is smelling like another heartbreaking cover to me.
Bucs 17, Lions 16
NY Jets at TENNESSEE (-4.5)
Not only are the Titans 10-0, they've also covered the spread in nine out of their ten wins. And yet, here they are again, with a low number at home against an overrated opponent, just providing the same kind of borderline guaranteed payoff that you were getting last year from the Perfectriots. Meanwhile, all they've done in the last two weeks is win with an air show, as Kerry Collins resuscitated Justin Gage from all of those Deep Sleeper lists that he was on during the preseason. If we had only been more patient.
The Jets, of course, had their best win of the year on the road in New England, where Saint Brett triumphed over age, adversity, his tragic flaws and nay, even Death Itself. In the long run, always put your money on the Reaper. Or, at least, on Favre throwing road picks against teams that provide pressure with their front four.
Titans 20, Jets 13
Buffalo at KANSAS CITY (+3.0)
Anyone who watched the MNF game and honestly thinks that Trent Edwards has a future in football with anything but a clipboard... please take off your underwear, and wear it on your head. Your personal PR needs the upgrade.
The Chiefs have become sneaky, thanks to the pulse that Tyler Thigpen has given them, and despite their 1-4 road record (and 1-9 overall), just might be ready to escape 1-AA status. Either that, or Edwards is shoving the Bills in. Either way, I'm taking the home team, who also have the benefit of the full week.
Chiefs 27, Bills 20
BEARS at St. Louis (+8.5)
Ah, over-reaction... your key to NFL gambling goodness. On the heels of a thorough crushing from the Packers on the road last week, your betting dollar actually finds less than a double-digit cover number against a Rams team that, after a brief mid-season wake-up call under interim coach Jim Haslett, have gone back to that historically awful team that was giving us such hope for the 0-16 perfect stink job earlier in the year.
But hey, no worries, Rams Fan... Marc Bulger says he wants Haslett to return next year. Leaving one to wonder only this: who exactly wants Bulger to return next year?
Here's why you want the Bears here. Kyle Orton will shake the rust off. The Bears will get a big play out of the special teams. Bulger can't help from turning the ball over. Orlando Pace has decided it's better not to play again. Stephen Jackson won't be back this week. The Bears are actually pretty good, at least in comparison to NFC West swill. Matt Forte is going to run for 150 yards. Brandon Lloyd will get back involved.
Oh, and the Rams have spent the last two weeks being down 30 points at the half. Let's just say I'm comfy with the number here.
Bears 34, Rams 17
NEW ENGLAND at Miami (+2.0)
Oh, this one hurts. Miami's got everything lined up -- the schedule of de facto byes, the home field, the vengeance, the running game, and the trickiness that opened the floodgates on the Patriots' Season Of Relative Woe. (Their season of woe is, of course, going to involve a playoff berth and more positive moments than 20 other NFL teams. But far be it for me to make light of Their Pain.)
Now, I'd *love* for the Dolphins to win this game. It would more or less stick a fork in the Patriots' season, and it would also do a very large amount of damage to the Soup Err Gene Yuss reputation of Bill Belichick. Remember, the last time he saw this laundry, a snap from center to Ronnie Brown caused him and his defense to soil themselves repeatedly. If it happens again, it means his ability to scheme for teams left along with the videotape. I'll leave the rest of this as an exercise to the reader.
But anyway... it's just not going to happen. Miami's talent level just isn't there yet, as the last two weeks of narrow escapes against bad teams (seriously, they were a fourth and seven away from a home loss to Oakland last week) has shown. And finally, this -- Matt Cassel has gotten his sea legs, and is no longer an active liability. Sigh. Patriots 24, Dolphins 16
* * * * *
Time for this week's halftime commercial. (What, you haven't noticed this kind of thing in the picks column all along? You miss a lot.)
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And we now return you to the picks...
* * * * *
Minnesota at JACKSONVILLE (-2.5)
OK, so which Jags' team shows up this week -- the one that took the early lead against the undefeated Titans, who handled Detroit without breaking a sweat... or the team that folded the tents against Kerry Collins at home, and who lost to the Bengals?
Normally, you'd really hate the match-up for them, since the Vikings can take away the run and will just ride Adrian Peterson to a big day. But these aren't the Vikings we've been expecting all year; you can run against them more than you think, and they might lose both of their big Williams tackles to Nutritional Dubiousness any minute now, really. That kind of thing tends to wear on a man, even if you're still active.
Oh, and, um, Gus Frerotte on the road will make more mistakes than David Garrard at home.
Jaguars 20, Vikings 16
Philadelphia at BALTIMORE (-1.0)
Boy, do I have some legroom on the Donovan McNabb bandwagon! No one to question my choice of music, I can stop to pee whenever I want -- hell, I can pee in the damn thing, it kind of smells like that anyway. Sure, it's looking really old, tired and dumb this week, and the driver just admitted last week that he didn't know what glove compartments were, since he never had to use one before... but you've got to love the privacy. I think I'll light me up a big 'ol victory cigar that smells surprisingly like ass!
This bus isn't stopping for anything, much like the Ravens' running game at home, or the 60-plus passing attempts that Andy Reid will dial up this week in a cunning game plan that ex-Eagles coach Jim Harbaugh didn't have diagrammed in, well, 2002. It might even work, provided the Ravens somehow don't score for the first 20 minutes of game time, at which point this good 'ol bus actually stops stripping the clutch and grinding the gears.
But, um, don't bet on it. This will probably be one of those games that Willis McGahee decides he's healthy for.
Oh, and a small note to the dozens of men who might handle the ball for the Eagles in this game? If it's second down, and you are running for the sticks, but you're not sure you can make it, just fall down. Do not, for the love of God, get close. That way lies madness.
Ravens 24, Eagles 13
'akland at 'ENVER (-9.5)
The Resistable Force Meets The Movable Object! Here's what's on the line for both teams this week: the winner gets their first letter back. Major stakes!
'enver is well on their way to winning the Worst Division Ever, thanks to back to back wins over Cleveland and Atlanta on the road, and given how good the Falcons have been this year, you've got to respect that. As an Eddie Royal owner, I'm loving this game, because Jay Cutler will spend his evening avoiding Brandon Marshall (who will magically disappear thanks to the work of Nnemdi Allah Akbar Ademanjiad) and feeding my guy.
Oh, and if you're actually betting this game and thinking the Raiders can cover the number given their recent friskiness in Miami, please remember:
> Mike Shanahan's vengeance is eternal
> The Raiders will have 4,000 more feet of suck than usual, and
> Darren McFadden will not save them or your fantasy team this year.
Finally for the Raiders, um, I hear someone else is calling the plays now. We are well into the part of the movie in which Al Davis is inspecting 12-year-old boys in Raider jerseys inside his bunker, and preparing the suicide pistols. Now, if he could only find his Eva, though given his age and eye for talent, I'm sure anyone will do, really...
Broncos 38, Raiders 19
Carolina at ATLANTA (-1.0)
My favorite line of the week. You've got a Panther team that is never all that trustworthy on the road, a Falcon team that's smarting from their first home loss, and a game that the Falcons need a lot more than the Panthers. Add in the Delhomme Malaise (that's what you get for having a Frenchy name, Jake), the continuing value of Michel Turner, and a motivated Rowdy Roddy White (from spending a week watching the catch he didn't make that could have won the game for them), and I just couldn't like the home team any more.
Of course, since this is the NFC South, my pick will be horribly wrong. So, um, good luck with this.
Falcons 26, Panthers 21
NY GIANTS at Arizona (+3.0)
The marquee game of the week, and I'm not getting fooled again. All hail our Giant Overlords! You are foolish to pick against them! Eli Manning is the best Manning in the history of Mannings! They rush the passer better now that all of their star pass rushers are gone! They are Road Beasts to End All Road Beasts! And I am so not taking this pick as a twisted reverse jinx in a futile hope to extend rooting interest in the NFC East for another week!
(Um, seriously? The Cardinals don't run the ball well enough to keep Kurt Warner from facing big pressure in this game. When Jebus's QB faces big pressure, he turns the ball over. The Cardinals' secondary is not good, and if Frank Gore doesn't trip on the 2 yard line two weeks ago, they would have lost to a horrible team at home. The Giants aren't horrible. This line is a serious value; you may not get the Giants with this few points again this year. Do not fear Eli's pattern of late-season suckery; everything is changed now that he's a Super Bowl God. Go nuts.)
Giants 34, Cardinals 24
Washington at SEATTLE (+3.5)
The wheels of the Redskins' bus came off last week, and while this looks like an obvious get-well present for the homecoming Jim Zorn, the Seabags' showed a little friskiness at home last week with the return of Matt Hasselbeck. I like the home 'dog here, as they've got a defense that's a little better than you might think at home.
Besides, the Ghost of Sean Taylor is still in this building, and, um, he kinda sucks.
Seahawks 24, Redskins 21
INDIANAPOLIS at San Diego (-2.5)
Bill Parcells is fond of saying that you are your record; by the end of the year, all of the good and bad bounces have worked out, and there just isn't anything more to say about it. So let us consider, slowly and carefully, your 4-6 Chargers. They are 1-5 on the road. They are 1-1 after the bye, when LaDanian Tomlinson was supposed to be all healthy again. They've lost to the Bills and Saints, Broncos and Panthers, Steelers and Dolphins. They have played two good games this year, against the Patriots and Jets. They can't rush the passer, are on their second defensive coordinator, and are two games back in the Worst Division Ever.
Now, are the Colts really ready to put a beat down on them? No. Not when the Colts actually had to work and sweat to beat the Texans, and it's not as if Indy doesn't have a host of issues of their own. But while the Colts have found ways to win for the last three weeks, that really doesn't describe the 'Bolts. Give me the road team, under the theory that in a close game, I'd rather have Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy, rather than Philip Rivers and Norv Turner. They may be doing it with mirrors, but you can fool infants with mirrors, and Norv is prone to eating paste. Colts 24, Chargers 21
GREEN BAY at New Orleans (-2.5)
You know the really awful thing about MNF this year? The games have, for the most part, been too good to ignore. This will be another, with the road Packers needing to shed their usual dome jitters against the usually raucous N'Awlins crowd. I like the Pack here, if only because Ryan Grant is looking like the best back in football right about now, and the fast Superdome track and slow home team linebackers really aren't going to bother him. Besides, the Saints keep trying to get Jeremy Shockey involved, when they really need to just realize that it's not working, everyone hates him, and the team is better off throwing to Billy Miller. Yeah, that's just not something they were expecting to see this year.
One of the disparaging things that you hear, as an NBA fan (and yes, I know that many of you just grabbed the scroll bar -- hear me out anyway) is that the regular season doesn't matter. You hear this from people who just don't like pro hoop and don't want to just flatly admit it.
This is, of course, bull. The regular season matters a ton, because home court in the playoffs is a big deal, and the record of higher seeds every year proves it. By the time 82 games is up, unless there is some mitigating injury factor, we usually know who the best teams are. They are the ones with the best record.
So in the East, what the first 8 to 12 games have shown is the following:
> Washington has lost any margin for error. Basically, there are two very good teams in the East (Boston and Cleveland), followed by a middle tier that's going to be .500 or better (which describes, gulp, 8 teams right now). By being six under .500 two weeks before Thanksgiving, they've got to play the rest of the year at least 41-33, and probably more like 45-29 to be truly safe. Considering that they aren't likely to get better until the return of Gilbert Arenas (and given how badly Gilbert played last year when attempting to come back from injury, not even then)... well, if you want to stick a fork in them after only eight games, I won't disagree with you. You need bigs to win in this league, and they've got, in the words of Jack Black, squadouche.
> People who think that LeBron James is going to bolt Cleveland to be with a winner need to realize... he's already with a winner. The Cavs are 9-2 after a convincing road win tonight in New Jersey, with their only losses coming on the road in Boston and New Orleans -- and both of those games were in single digits. Beyond 'Bron, they are getting serious production out of their garbagemen (combine Ben Wallace and Anderson Varejao, and you get 13 boards and 2 blocks a game in 48 useful minutes), and a clear second option in Mo Williams (15.9 points a game). They still aren't a work of art to watch outside of King James, but they defend well, rebound better, and work people under the table.
It also, of course, doesn't hurt that James is throwing down 30, 8 and 7 every night. Ye gads.
> Orlando's just fine, thanks. When they dropped the first two games, there was the temptation to think that Dwight Howard's bad Olympics and Hedo Turkoglu's ill health was going to take these guys down a peg or three. Eight wins in their last nine fixed that problem, including a three-game road sweep. They still look vulnerable to me for as long as they want to fool themselves with Jameer Nelson at the point, and I'm not sold on them as road warriors. But they're still the best team in the Southeast, even if Atlanta and Miami are better.
> Your Philadelphia 76ers are 5-5 and looking much better than they did a week ago, thanks to a three win in four night streak in Toronto, Indiana, and the lay-up at home over the Cursed Thunder at home. The most intriguing thing is how they are doing it. Your leading scorer is second-year man Thaddeus Young, not Elton Brand or Andre Iguodala. Seven men are in striking range of double figures per game in points per game. They out-rebound the opponents by 8 boards a game while shooting a higher percentage from the field -- and that's a pretty rare combo right there.
There are flaws, of course, and it's a pretty glaring one, in that they don't take care of the ball. But given the turnover in the roster, that's more than understandable. My guess is that we won't really know anything about this team until the usual monster West Coast trip (this year, it's six games from Dec. 23 to Jan. 3), but getting back to .500 fast is a major relief.
In the West...
> Punch the lottery tickets for the Wolves, Cursed Thunder and Clippers already. They are a combined 3-27 (hard to do, Harry), and if you combined the rosters for all of them, you might have a playoff team. But only if you can get Baron Davis to show up and give a damn, and I'm not thinking you will, really.
Honestly, I'd like to find the people who talked about how the Wolves got a good deal in the Garnett trade and hook them up to lie detectors, just to see if they are idiots or morons. Basketball is not baseball; numbers do not exist in a vacuum, and you don't replace a high plus defensive player with a defensive sieve and have it be a zero-sum game. The bigger question is, really... what exactly does Kevin McHale have to do to lose his job? Now that Isiah Thomas is (presumably) being kept in a room with safety scissors and non-effective glue, he's Top Choice for the Guy Who Shouldn't Be Employed...
> The West will regret not burying the Spurs when they had the chance. The old robots are a one-legged stool right now, with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili both out with injuries, but a motivated Tim Duncan is a monstrous thing, and after three wins in five nights (over Houston, then on the road in Sacramento and in Clipland), they are back to .500, with four out of the next six at home. Assuming they'll be .500 or better at the end of that, they'll welcome back Manu and Parker, spend December getting everything settled, and be the team that no one wants to play in May -- especially because everyone but Duncan will have fresh legs, and he's still young enough to handle the minutes.
Remember, if Ginobili's healthy, they really could have stretched the Lakers much more in last year's playoffs, and it's not like they don't have the pedigree. And to think, they were 2-6 just a week ago, and looking like the Warriors '07 choice for the team to be hurt most by a slow start.
> This is a very top-heavy conference -- which is why the Nuggets are still relevant. Only four teams (Utah, Lakers, Suns and Rockets) look all that good to me, though you expect that the Hornets will turn it around any day now. After that, you've got the Blazers, Nuggets and Suns... and your nine-hole team, which last year was a 48-win Warrior club that was wildly entertaining, is going to be a sad-sack Maverick team that just needs to be euthanized.
> George Karl didn't take long to throw Allen Iverson under the bus, did he? I guess the poor boy is just giddy over a road win in Boston, the night after losing in Cleveland. This has left many to follow the logic that Chaunce must be better than AI, and well, OK, what the hell, it's not like the Nugs were doing anything before the trade.
But honestly, just how magical of a creature is AI, to make a very highly paid coach in Karl tolerate so many bad moments? I'm thinking The Answer has hidden Anti-Jedi powers and just enjoys losing. Either that, or George Karl quit on his team like a bitch last year, which, given that there was a whole Internet movement trying to get him pink-slipped last year, strikes me as just a *little* more likely.
(And yes, of course I am defensive about AI, who is, of course, a defensive hole and no one's idea of a great point guard... but for heaven's sake, the man killed himself for you for a year and a half, and didn't say a negative word to anyone. And you just pretty much took a dump on him in public. In the words of the great Ricky Watters, for who? For What?)
Oh, and George? I know you work for a team that won't ever spend money again, and you're probably going to spend maybe one more year twiddling your junk around .500 while collecting your paycheck in a weak division in a watered-down conference. But you might not want to poison the well so much for your successor. He might actually want to attract a free agent that's worth a damn some day, especially when you realize that Chaunce is old, getting older, and wears down very badly by the end of the year...
I could have written this 48 hours ago, of course, but I wanted to make sure I still felt the same after the immediate pain was gone. The answer is... yes. (And no, All Will Not Be Forgiven if they beat the Ravens this Sunday. They'll have to go unbeaten for the rest of the year for that to happen; I'm officially off this bandwagon for 2008.)
> If you drafted Lee Evans in your fantasy league, I'm sorry. Having him at WR when your QB is Trent Edwards is like having a Lamborghini in the driveway of a blind man.
> I'd say something about the first three quarters, but for the most part, they just didn't matter. If you like field goals, this was riveting. Otherwise, not so much.
> On back to back plays to start the fourth quarter, Browns RB James Harrison goes 72 yards on a sweep, then the Bills' Leodis McKelvin took the kickoff back 94 yards to immediately counter with a touchdown. This would all matter more if both of these teams didn't stink.
> The Browns like to send Brady Quinn on naked bootlegs, having done it twice tonight. The only trouble with this is that Quinn doesn't seem to understand about sliding or going out of bounds. It's OK, Brady, we won't think you are gay if you avoid contact! We're clearly going to think that from all of the other reasons you've given us!
> Boy, it didn't take long for Jamal Lewis to go back to being a spent force. The Browns get a lot more out of plays with Harrison than the nominal starter. Besides, Harrison's a lot less mouthy about people quitting, one suspects...
> Romeo Crennel really does have that Art Shell vibe going. Not a good thing for Browns Fan. Honestly, this is a team with talent, but you'd never know it, thanks to the coaching.
> The MNF chuckleheads tell us how Trent Edwards has a sarcastic list and hate for all of the other quarterbacks that were taken before him in his draft class.
Um, Trent? You do realize that you also, well, suck? Especially in this game, when you threw 3 picks in the first quarter, then spent the rest of the night throwing checkdowns rather than risking Pick Four?
> The Browns narrowly avoided making a very bad form of NFL history tonight, in that they almost lost after being up by 13 or more for the third straight week. As is, they needed a 56-yard field goal from kicker Phil Dawson (part of a 5-for-5 night for him), followed by a missed 45-yard field goal from Ryan Lindell, to win 29-27.
And... no one circles the drain like the Buffalo Bills!
Today's list comes from my past 24 hours, which have been a lot less than fun. But like the noble Indian using every part of the buffalo, I've used the experience to produce a big bowl of fun. Or, well, something.
The first tie in the NFL in six years, and nearly four hours of breathtakingly blah football. On some level, it's exactly what both teams deserved, since neither of them looked anything like a winner today, and the perfect ending to my weekend, which started with a disappointing turnout for poker, had the middle ground of the wife and kids getting explosively ill, and finished with that mess of a game. Some notes for the post-mortem...
> If you own Brian Westbrook in your fantasy league, I'm sorry. And if you're an Eagle fan, I'm even more sorry. Correll Buckhalter was the better back in every aspect of the game today, and since Andy Reid values loyalty over performance, it's not like we're going to see him get more touches. Add it up, and you have a team that has to put everything on its quarterback, and when he turns it over four times in a game... well, you're not going to win.
> Today's game, and the near certain playoff elimination that should follow just after Thanksgiving, will up the drumbeat for Kevin Kolb, especially since McNabb had time to throw for most of the day. I can't defend him very well after those many giveaways, but it hard to see how the back-up wins this game, either. When every short yardage play is a nightmare of uncertainty, that's not really something a quarterback change fixes. But I can see how some people just want to blow this team up and start from scratch.
> The Eagles defense did everything you could ask today, short of scoring itself. It sacked the quarterback 8 times, got a fumble recovery, held the opponent to 56 rushing yards, and only gave up a field goal on a first and goal at the one series after a fumble. They gave their offense 17 possessions today to score points, and held the opponent to 4 for 20 on third down. It's not on them.
> Of the four McNabb turnovers, three were legitimate; the fourth was a ball that bounced off Kevin Curtis's pads and stayed up for the pick. Scoring-wise, I kind of hate that all picks are charged to the quarterback, but independent of that is the fact that Curtis was awful today, despite the 7 for 64 numbers. He dropped a certain first down in the second half, just a ball that owned him on the numbers. They need him, especially in this era where there is no running game, to be a hell of a lot better than that.
> Sav Rocca was terrible in the fourth quarter and overtime today, with 36.2 yards on the day for an average. I'm not sure if it was the wind or overwork or an injury or simple incompetence, but what had been a strength all year stopped being one.
> In regards to the tie being better than a loss... well, I suppose, but the simple fact is that there's no way this team goes to the playoffs unless they are second in the NFC East, since the South has more than enough teams to take that position. Basically, if they want to make the playoffs, they can't lose again this year. And considering that they can't run the ball, can't stop the run against a good team, can't win at night, can't convert in short yardage...
Well, let's just say we're all going to have a lot of free time this winter. And a very strong need to draft a running back with a higher than expected pick...
Today's link is probably going to make some in the audience wonder if I'm OK. The answer is yes, of course, no worries, and never take me seriously on a Friday morning. Just a side effect of commuting for over 16 hours a week; I've never really gotten used to it, and Friday is when it just all builds up.
Oh, and there's a screaming infant on my train this morning. At least it's not mine.
Anyway, in moments like this, I say embrace your inner Strindberg. Besides, in just 13 hours, I'll be playing poker. Mmmm, poker.
I got tonight's game, thanks to my proximity to the Jets media market. It was startlingly entertaining, unlike the next few weeks of NFLN work, which prominently features AFC West teams. Ye gads, this is a network that's just trying to hurt you, really.
I've seen way too much Jet Football this year, both from the market proximity and the fantasy league over-reliance on Thomas Jones, Jerricho Cotchery and Leon Washington. So here's the key points from a game that you probably didn't see...
> The Jets took a big early lead (24-6) on the stength of a Washington kickoff return and some good red zone work by Favre. The Patriots then got a last-second touchdown before the half, as they exploited Jabbar Gaffney against the Jets' weak nickel backs, but the odd thing was how the Jets kept refusing to spy Matt Cassel, who wound up running 8 times for 62 yards tonight to lead the Pats. Honestly, the Jets' failure to adjust for Cassel picking up easy first downs was kind of amazing. Eric Mangini might have won a big game tonight, but his team did it, not his coaching.
> In the second half, the Pats played error-ridden football to make their comeback a hell of a lot harder than it had to be. A Ben Watson fumble stopped one drive just outside of the red zone. An oversnap in the shotgun led to a 23-yard loss and a failed drive. Meanwhile, the Jets were going three and out, forgetting to run the ball, and in general, just behaving dramatically unlike a team that was ready to step up and lead the division.
> Finally, Cassel found Watson at the end of the third for the touchdown, got the surprisingly early 2-point conversion to Gaffney, and then added a long field goal to tie it after another failed Jets drive. The Jets then responded with a long drive that was the kind of thing you thought they'd be doing all night: using their physical offensive line that is much, much better at run than pass blocking, buttressed by the occasional short safe throws from Favre.
After one questionable defensive holding call followed by a much more defensible one, Jones was finally able to punch it in from the one, giving me the fantasy football friendly evening that I needed to take over (temporary) first place in my league. Woo hoo! Go me! It's my birthday! It also looked like the dagger.
> After the kickoff, the Jets forced a three and out with a great Kris Jenkins sack, and things Absolutely Over, given Belichick's continuing shakiness with his timeouts... but the Pats held on a short third down, and wound up 65 yards away with 64 seconds left. Thanks to some truly regrettable prevent defense and some surprisingly competent two-minute drill work from Cassel, the game came down to a 4th and 1 from the 16 with eight seconds left.
Now, at this moment in the game, Randy Moss had two catches for six yards. He'd been open on a deep ball in the third that Cassel failed to keep in the field of play, one of those passes that makes Patriots Fan absolutely convinced that no matter what, this isn't their year. He was, basically, playing one of those trademark Randy Moss Isn't Very Interested Games, because a good corner does that to him with increasing regularity now, and the Jets have a very good corner in Darrelle Revis.
So, on the very last play of the game, after a defensive time out, the Jets put Ty Law on Moss instead.
Law, who was unemployed earlier in the, um, week, mostly because he's very old and very slow.
Who was then promptly beaten off the line by Moss, couldn't recover on a perfectly thrown out by Cassel, and then got to watch the booth review for a pointless few minutes before the catch was upheld.
Tie game and overtime.
Now, honestly, Mangini seems to be a tolerable coach. In two of his three years, he's managed to have his team play meaningful football. If he's had any input at all on the personnel decisions, that's also to the good; his defense is loads better than it was last year. Winning on the road in Foxboro, regardless of how wounded the opponent is, is a great win. Maybe Law had been having a good night up to then, but I kind of doubt it, given that Cassel wound up throwing for 400 yards.
But, um, seriously? You have a guy off the street covering what might be the best wideout in football, one on one, in a do-or-die situation with the division lead and your likely playoff life on the line, since a Patriots win would have given them a 2-0 heads-up edge in the tiebreaker?
That's not strategy, that's suicide. And that kind of unspeakable brain fart just isn't compatible with a team that comes anywhere near a title. Period.
> The Jets won the toss, and with the crowd giving the Pats' defense as much love as they are still capable of giving, gave up a a bad sack on Favre to force a 3rd and long. With all of us waiting for the Favre TAInt that is always looming in big games, the veteran instead took advantage of a non-existent three man pass rush and a wide-open Dustin Keller to convert for the first. Dramatically bad coverage on the part of the home team.
> After that, Favre kept feeding Keller with safe throws, backed up by occasional Jones runs. A big against-the-grain completion to Coles was the last unsafe play of the night, and it put the Jets in field goal position. After three last Jones carries to center the ball and get it closer, Jay Feely came out to add his signature drama on the event. A fluttering field goal snuck in past the left upright, and that was that. Give it up for Mangini here, in that if he had kicked on third down and from two yards further out, maybe Feely misses.
So the Jets move to 7-3, the Pats fell to 6-4... and I'm really having a hard time imagining the Dolphins not winning this division. And by the way, this would never have happened in Bill Belichick was alive. (Seriously, the man's lost the fastball. He's been brutal this year, first in the Colts game, and now this. You get the feeling that he's just not trying as hard as he usually does, because he can't get over the fact that all of his best players are hurt and the game just isn't as much fun when you are scoring 500 points a year. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy, really.)
Oh, and finally, give the devil his due. Favre never made the big mistake that would have swung this game to the home team, and he made all of the throws he needed to win the game.
Expect to hear this, oh, a million times in the next week...
According to Ad Age, 90% of women name their plumbing. Which is only slightly more astounding than this ad, really. (The Shooter Wife, for the record, calls it "Property of My Sovereign Patriarch and Master.")
Today's list is something that, in a better world where I become famous for blogging, would be read on the air on sports talk radio in the Philly area, so that this site could be besieged by mouth-breaking sports radio types. The first wave would be highly complimentary, because burying Andy Reid is right up there with smacking Bush supporters right now in terms of being on the side of public opinion.
Then, the next wave (which would happen after the Eagles win by two or three touchdowns against the Bengals) would roll on in to work me over as a big idiot since the world has changed. There would also be, of course, people who think that my opinion can't possibly be valid, because I must not (a) have played the game like they did, or (b) have to be gay.
Thank the stars no one really reads this thing, eh?
Before we start this week's column, a Public Service Announcement. Do not mess with wolves. They don't seem to understand English much. (And yes, I'm laughing at these morons. What were you expecting?) Wolf 1, Idiots 0.
Here's a fun little fact for all of you nature lovers out there. Scientists in Yellowstone National Park have observed that the elk that inhabit the park display no signs of fear when they are now confronted by wolves.
Given that wolves are Godless Killing Machines That Can Trick Rednecks, you'd think that elk would be scared of them, given the snarling and the steely blue eyes and the bloodthirsty pack dynamic and the biting and the rending of flesh and the hey Hey HEY! (Professor Frink, Signing Off.)
What has happened is that since wolves have not been present in significant numbers in the habitat for 60 years, the prey has adapted, as prey does, to the new environment. Without the routine application of Exceptionally Negative Stimuli, and the shared knowledge of seeing the wolves bring down the weak and the elderly, the elk have moved on to a post-wolf worldview.
My grandfather-in-law, who was a deer hunter for most of his highly numerous years on the planet, would say that if he was out for a walk without his rifle, deer would more or less walk up to him and ask him what time it was. This might, of course, simply be the words of a guy who never felt that he bagged enough trophy bucks, but that really didn't seem like the man's style. It may be that prey simply knows when it's not prey.
Now, on some level, one assumes that disregarding the offensive capabilities of predators won't work out terribly well for the Individual, Terrorist-Coddling Elk if they find themselves in a bad situation.
Or -- and this is the part where my surface-only knowledge makes things problematic -- maybe wolves just don't eat elk that much, given that elk are pretty damned big, and wolves probably find deer and smaller game a lot easier to manage. Besides, there's always rednecks to trick and snack on.
Sure, if you are betting on such things, take the wolves plus the points. And if you happen to be an elk, be social, dammit.
And now the magic pullback into Actual Sports... what does this have to do with NFL picks? Well, take a look at some of the longshot covers I went for last week.
RAMS at Jets - took the road dog to cover. They lost by 37.
Jags at LIONS - took the home dog to cover a 7-point spread. They lost by 20-plus.
CHIEFS at Chargers - took the road dog to cover a 15.5 point spread. They lost by a point.
NINERS at Cardinals - took the road dog to cover a 9.5 point spread. They lost by five, and were stopped on first and goal from the one with 40 seconds left.
In short, I have lost my fear of predators in this NFL environment. And as the 8-6 record for the week and 12 games over .500 record for the year shows, it's defensible, if not wildly profitable.
Wolves may exist -- Lord knows that Kerry Collins has done worse things to teammates than hump their legs, gnaw on decaying meat, and howl at the moon -- but we don't fear them. Spread covering wolves like the Patriots, Cowboys, Chargers and Packers have all come back to the pack, mangy and moth-eaten, content to gorge on I-AA roadkill.
Oh, and if you don't see yourself as prey when gambling on sports... you may already be in the process of getting devoured.
Final Editor's Note: A very good chunk of this was written on the Bum Bench at the Newark train station during my commute from hell. See if you can guess which ones.
And with that, on to the picks!
* * * * *
JETS at New England (-3)
Judgment Day for these two bitter AFC East rivals and incredibly flawed teams, and on a short week and inferior network to boot. The Jets come off a de facto bye against the "Oh Snap, Jim Haslett Is Our Coach? Time To Quit Again" Rams, the second time this year that they threw buckets of confetti at an NFC West team at home.
The Patriots played Bore Ball against the suddenly hapless Bills, and have turned into Old-School Denver East with their ability to take any RB off the street, delouse him, and turn him into a productive player. I'm pretty sure the Smells Like Poo guys who are flanking me on the train station bench where I am writing this are going to be next; they look like they've got some explosion. Yup, definite explosion; in passing out, he just kicked over his cup of coffee. Definite explosion Anyway, moving on...
This week, Ben Jarvis Sacco Vanzetti Smoot Hawley Alpha Tango Charlie Green Ellis gets to try his straight ahead luck against Kris Jenkins. That probably won't go well. So it will be left to Matt Cassel to get it done. That sound you just heard was Patriot Fan smacking himself in the forehead. (Well, OK, not really -- Patriot Fan has people to do that for him. But the flesh-on flesh sound is just the same, if lacking quite the same fat-amped snap.)
The entire game comes down to this: can the Jets score 20 points without giving up defensive touchdowns via the exposure of Brett Favre's TAInt? The single best thing that happened for them in the Rams game was watching Thomas Jones throw down a dominant yardage and touchdown game; it might have been just enough to convince even Eric Mangini, who usually plays this game tight anyway, to just try and win it with a 25 carries for 95 yards kind of day. With NFLN's embarrassing "Heroes" nonsense hyping of Saint Brett, it will be tough to have that kind of patience, but I'm thinking that because it's a road game and a short week, they'll keep it simple... especially now that the Patriots are down not just Rodney Harrison, but also Adelius Thomas.
Plus, the Pats' crowd is giving the home team no lift right now, and just seems to want to turn on Matt Cassel on first move. Jeeves, boo now! Louder, you halfwit! That fails to convey my rage at such inadequate footballery!
Jets 20, Patriots 16
'enver at ATLANTA (-5.5)
Second straight road game for the Broncos, who survived Cleveland and the near-total annihilation of their running back corps to get a shootout win over Brady Quinn. They face a methodical Atlanta team that just doesn't make mistakes, and a rookie QB (Matt Ryan) who is well on his way to Rookie of the Year status.
Falcon Fan should be very, very afraid: after a great deal of time resisting the urge to get on the Dirty Bird Bus, I'm taking up residence and snoring with my mouth open. (Not much on the dental work here in Newark.) Look for 200+ yards from Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood, Ryan to throw for another 200 (almost all of it from play action), and a clock-controlling win for the home team.
Falcons 31, Broncos 24
PHILADELPHIA at Cincinnati (+9.0)
Here's how enthused I am for my home town team and their chances for the rest of the year. Each week that I work up this picks column, I type in the games by hand from a list, checking for the line. I then work it around back and forth, filling in the holes and trying to give each game a good amount of consideration, before doing the drunken spell and grammar check that Blogfrica demands.
This game? I missed it on the list entirely. My eye saw it, but my hands refused to type it. And to think, if they'd only have beaten the Giants at home... I'd have been trying to work out how I could drive the 1,200 round-trip miles to Porkopolis to see them win the game that would have given them a first place tie in the division.
This week, the Eagles play a Bengal team that's fresh off their bye, has seen some recent friskiness out of Cedric Benson and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and has plus wideouts. It doesn't matter; they're horrible, and the Eagles beat horrible teams. Considering there is only one more horrible team on the schedule this year (Cleveland, Week 15), they can't afford to slip, and they won't. It's one of the things that Andy Reid is good at; they pound crud teams. And in the immortal words of Derrick Coleman, Whoop De Damn Do. Eagles 34, Bengals 17
Chicago at GREEN BAY (NL)
Now or never time for the Pack, who picked a terrible time to go into offensive hibernation last week on the road in Minnesota. Despite doing next to nothing (and seriously, someone please wake up Greg Jennings, as he's killing me in two leagues), the Pack might be the most dangerous sub-.500 team in the conference, since they finally have Ryan Grant back to full power, and the defense keeps running back touchdowns off interceptions. I also remain convinced that they made the right move in going from Saint Brett to Aaron Rodgers, but dammit, it'd be nice if the latter stopped making that a point of debate.
It'd be nice if the Pack started to stop the run, but that shouldn't be impossible against the Bears, who hope to get Cowboy Kyle Orton back to save them from the Rextacy. Even if they do get their starter back there, I like the Pack to overcome the rust, throw for a ton of yards against a surprisingly bad Bears secondary, and win this one under the little-known NFL betting rule of Which Team Needs It More. (One last point to the Pack: can you please, pretty please, throw a ball or two to Grant? He was really good in space last year. And that whole Brandon Jacobs Is In, So We're Always Going To Throw A Screen Pass To Him, Because The Last Block He Threw Had A Vowel On it? It's getting just a *mite* predictable.)
Packers 27, Bears 20
Houston at INDIANAPOLIS (-8.5)
Full speed ahead for the Colts, who got the quality road win they desperately needed last week in Pittsburgh. They come home for their traditional punching bags, the Texans, who have shown a dramatic and unexpected failure on defense this year en route to their 3-5 record.
I really like the home team to put up a big number here, especially if Marvin "Fork" Harrison is concussed and unavailable. The cock-blocking that he's been given to Anthony Gonzalez and this offense is Warrick Dunn-esque. Only, you know, without any of the actual production.
For the Texans, Steve Slaton owners continue to rejoice in their awesomeness. Did I mention that I own Slaton in every single one of my leagues, and that I am, in all likelihood, much smarter than you? That's why I wrote this picks column in a train station, next to guys who smell like poo, while waiting for my wife to get here with my wallet. Trust me with your money!
Colts 34, Texans 24
NEW ORLEANS at Kansas City (+5.0)
Can the Chiefs cover the number against a Saints team that left their body parts and playoff chances in Atlanta? Probably not, given that Drew Brees is going to throw for 400 yards again, but the surprising Tyler Thigpen might do the same. In a game that will only be watched seriously by fantasy players and gamblers -- err, gamblers and more gamblers -- I like the Saints to score more points. I'm taking the over, and I don't even know what it is. Saints 38, Chiefs 31
Oakland at MIAMI (-10.5)
Miami comes to this one from a suck-out cover kind of home win against the mostly terrible Seabags, who might have played their one good road game of the year in losing by two in Florida. The Raiders also come off a loss in which they might have outplayed their opponents at the line (the Panthers at home), generated turnovers and had the semblance of a running game. Um, they still lost by double digits, so if they avoid quitting in this one before halftime, I'll be amazed. In this game, I look for the Raiders to unravel with a quickness, and for the Fish to have all kinds of wacky running hijinks.
Dolphins 26, Raiders 10
BALTIMORE at NY Giants (-6.5)
UPSET SPECIAL! UPSET SPECIAL! UPSET SPECIAL! is what I'd be doing if this was a podcast, or if I was looking to one-up my fellow bums here in the train station. It's been fun, dear theoretical reader, but once the battery dies out, I'll be reduced to begging for coffee, watching my Blackberry die, and huddling under my London Review of Books for warmth.
Such a fragile connection to the top, this world is, and such a similar fall from grace awaits Our NFC East Overlords, who will be looking at a road club that looks a lot like them -- tough defense, quarterback that suddenly isn't making mistakes, multiple RBs that can punish. The only difference is that when the Ravens defense make plays, it also tends to score points. The Giants will not fear these wolves, and it will cost them. That, or I'm getting a contact methadone high here. Take the Ravens to cover; I actually think they are going to win. (Also, that the national media will regard it as a slip up game after a tough win in Philly, rather than the mouth v. fist problem that the Ravens can do from time to time.)
Ravens 24, Giants 23
Minnesota at TAMPA BAY (-3.5)
The Bucs are coming off a bye, can stop the run, and will be facing a fairly gassed road team that (and this is a first for the Bucs) could really be exploited in the return game. This one won't be pretty, and people who rely on Jeff Garcia for numbers usually come home very, very angry. But the Bucs will win anyway, even if Gus Frerotte has to throw all of their touchdown passes for them. He's prone to that, you know, because, well, he's Gus Frerotte.
Bucs 19, Vikings 9
Detroit at CAROLINA (-14)
It's hard to exaggerate just how bad Jake Delhomme was last week. Honestly, the Panthers might have been better off with Chris Weinke. Or Rodney Peete. That they won anyway, and will win again this week against a Lions team that is redefining what it means to be terrible, shouldn't hide you from the fact that unless the can run the ball, they aren't a very good football team, record be damned.
Of course, they may also just be bad on the road and good at home. Whatever. I've just written more words about this game than anyone else outside of Detroit or Charlotte will this week. Take your de facto bye and move on, Panthers.
Panthers 28, Lions 13
St. Louis at SAN FRANCISCO (-6.0)
Honestly, NFL? If these games have to be on the roster, please go back to bye weeks. Lots of them.
No one really needs to see the Rams play football again this year, especially when Stephen Jackson isn't involved, Torry Holt is rivaling Marvin Harrison for Sad Forkedness, Donnie Avery is good but not so good as to make everything else not matter, and the teams have had their fans wondering who they will get in the draft since the clock turned to October.
Um, give me the Niners, I guess. Shaun Hill sucks less than Marc Bulger. Feel free to put that on your resume, Shaun, along with "Biped" and "Vertebrate."
Niners 27, Rams 16
Arizona at Seattle (+3)
UPSET... stomach. A good friend of the blog is in the late stages of a big money suicide pool, and sweated out the end of last week's MNF error-a-thon with his pool life depending on Frank Gore getting tripped by the 2-yard-line in the final seconds.
The lesson, as always: Don't Gamble, Kids.
Unless you are, you know, *not* a pussy.
Seattle is counting on the possible return of Matt Hasselbeck (and will someone please, please, get Yahoo to list Seneca Wallace as a WR/QB so that I can have the sneakiest third WR play in the history of roto sports). They also get an extra day of preparation to surprise the road favorites after their MNF adventure. Can Arizona shake off its horrible road record and unfamiliarity with the high side of life? Well, I won't be shocked it they don't, but after watching Donovan McNabb tear this secondary apart, it's hard to imagine Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and the rest not getting it done as well.
Cardinals 31, Seahawks 20
SAN DIEGO at Pittsburgh (-4.5)
For the conspiracy-minded Steeler Fans among us (and yes, they do exist), consider the fact that the Chargers don't have to play that early 1pm West Coast Death Start. Also consider that Willie Parker can't seem to get through a football game without falling apart at the seams, Ben Rothlesberger is being asked to carry a team to a top 2 seed in what might be an MVP season, and the defense is starting down a very good collection of wideouts, plus the best pass-catching tight end in the game.
Oh, and the Chargers are also coming off the bye, and are running out of time to win the AFC West. I mean, any week now, they're going go have to win a game. Maybe even two!
Luckily for the Iron City Men and Steely McBeam Lovers, the Chargers still employ Norv Turner, might have the worst pass rush in Christendom, and Phillip Rivers is a 'tard that throws bad picks in tight spots. It all adds up to a wildly entertaining game and Steeler win... but they won't cover. Yes, my prognostication mojo is so good, I can -- and will -- bet on the nickel.
Steelers 28, Chargers 24
Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3.0)
Can the Jaguars be the first team this year to stop the Titan Onslaught? Someone eventually will, but it won't be a team with a patchwork offensive line that is so badly coached, they actually lost a game to the Bengals. (Yeah, I know, someone lost to the Bengals. It's still hard to believe, isn't it?)
Look for the Titans to come back from their one-week hiatus of not being able to run the ball well, and for Maurice Jones-Drew to have one of those 10 carries for 16 yards days that make his fantasy owners more than a little peeved. One of these years, the Jags will replace Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell, right?
Finally, there's this. What more do the Titans have to do to be considered, you know, good? Doesn't an undefeated team deserve a little more spread love than three points here?
Titans 24, Jaguars 13
DALLAS at Washington (+2.0)
The Return Of Romo! Expect that storyline to get *just* a little notice in this SNF tilt, and by just, I mean only slightly fewer spins than Chevy Chase diving into a pool in his socks.
Oh, and here's a fun fact, while I'm talking about Things I Hate, given that this is a meeting of two of the Eagles' biggest rivals. Two years ago when I left the Bay Area, I left behind my DirecTV hookup. I called them, canceled the account, thanked them for the service, and That Was That. I actually liked their service, and thought about getting it again when I was set up in New Jersey, but the cable company sucked us in with a triple play deal, and the broadband mattered to us more than the programming. Besides, now that I'm in the middle ground of the Philly and New York metro areas (and I get my Eagles), I really didn't need Sunday Ticket anymore. No hard feelings though, and who knows, maybe I'd go back to them at some point...
Until six months later, when I see that DirecTV has started charging my credit card again. Two months worth, some serious coin. Multiple phone calls to the company got me no satisfaction, so I called my credit card company and got them to reject the charges.
This was two years and four collection agencies ago.
Now, some might complain about this, or have issue with their remarkable stupidity and malfeasance. Me? I'm *happy* to talk to the collection agents. I tell them all how wonderful it is that they're getting such quality work from these complete tools, how lovely it is that I'm taking their time, and how they can all sue me into the fires of Hell, and possibly corrupt my credit rating forever, for the sake of this. They aren't getting the money. Send me to debtor's prison. They aren't getting the money.
You see, I've become that most awful of all things, the happy malcontent. If anyone -- ever! -- asks me for my opinion of DirecTV, I'll tell them about this episode, and how they also rape puppies, eat kittens, and lure small children into unmarked vans with candy. After that, they abort the monstrous dog fetuses, feeding the unborn dog meat to the kidnapped children in a bizarre cult activity.
After that, it gets kind of graphic and tasteless. By all means, pass it on, and treat it as your own personal "Aristocrats" joke.
Anyhoo, that leads us to their wonderful, wonderful, heavy rotation idiocy ads, which just reminds me, EVERY SINGLE TIME THEY SHOW THEM, how much they need to fail in business. In life. Perhaps in the next life as well. And all for the sake of two months of theft charges.
The really nice thing is that, thanks to their ads, you all feel the same as me now. Pitchforks and torches, anyone?
Oh, right, the game. Clinton Portis is 50-50 to play right now, the Redskins aren't as good as they showed earlier in the year, Dallas has picked it up defensively recently and they just need it more. Expect a big bounce-back game from the Dallas offense and way too many Dallas Is Back headlines on Monday. Cowboys 31, Redskins 20
CLEVELAND at Buffalo (-5.0)
The continued nightmare that is Prime Time All The Time for the Browns, who travel to Buffalo to face the reeling Bills. Had the Browns held off the Broncos in their last game, there would be all kinds of Brady Quinn Is God nonsense for you to slog through, but since that didn't happen, this is your basic toss-up. Give me the team with talent and an offensive line over the team that stopped playing in early October.
A thought while mulling over the wackiness that is the NFL world where the Arizona Football Cardinals have their terrible division wrapped up by Thanksgiving, just like the old Ram teams used to do, with the old Ram quarterback...
What would a terrible NFL season look like? I'm thinking that it would have five components.
1) A terrible (and more importantly, disappointing) season for your favorite team.
Well, mine is 0-3 in the division, can't stop the run (the single most nauseating way to lose on defense), and short of a remarkable turn of events, appears to be drawing dead for the playoffs. This, after seeming to be one of the best five teams in football on several occasions this year. Disappointing.
2) Coin-flip resolutions.
Last week in Minnesota, the Vikings held on for an important home win against the Packers when a 52-yard field goal drifted wide. This, after giving up touchdowns on special teams and on Gus Frerotte's TAInt.
Thanks to the Bears losing to the Titans, they are right in the division race.
Last night in Arizona, the Niners would have won had Frank Gore been able to remain upright after a defensive tackle grazed him with one hand. Instead, he tripped, and the Cardinals had a four-game lead in the division. All hail our new Cardinal Overlords!
3) Boring teams at the top.
Right now, we're staring right down the barrel of a Titans-Giants match. Over-under on punts: 20. Not since Tony Siragusa thugged his way to the Lombardi Trophy has a champion looked so unpalatable.
4) Fading ratings.
Nope. Blame/credit fantasy leagues.
5) Faltering attendance.
Not a problem unless you are Bengal Fan, and even if you are, you just use the Web to fill the place with Road Team's Fans. Sell the tickets and they will come.
So, is the NFL, for lack of a better term, recession-proof? It certainly seems so, though one wonder about the relative wisdom of defying basic economic laws. After all, (some? many? most?) people thought that the housing market was receession proof, that credit markets would never get to a point where they'd be allowed to fail, that the Republicans would hold Congress and the Presidency for decades...
What it speaks to, really, is the NFL's essential and incredible conservatism in limiting the access to their product. In a marketplace where, last year, every single team sold out every single game for a two-month period despite the skyrocketing cost of going to a game, the NFL played no more games, launched no new teams, and didn't launch any satellite leagues.
Imagine any other business that would have done the same.
Now, imagine that you are a shareholder of that business. You'd be bent at the lack of expansion, wouldn't you? Hell, you'd probably be worried about some competitor coming in and taking your overflow interest.
I'm not going to give them credit for incredible foresight in this; I think they are just complacent rich snobs who are enjoying their status as the lock low communists/ monopolists of American sport. But it's hard to say that, given the current economic climate, that it's the wrong play.
Today's link concerns the final table coverage from the Lemur of the World Series of Poker, and while I love these things... I can't help but wonder just how much damage this is going to do to the game in the long run. After all, everything the Lemur touches eventually turns to hell... whether it's hoops with nothing but dunks and threes, football with twerpish announcing teams and immense announcing teams, or baseball with, well, Joe Morgan and Chris Berman's home run derby calls.
Anyway, as the old joke goes... what's the difference between dogs and poker players?
1) Leave wallet at home, which means the Shooter Wife has to meet me in Newark so that I can get my PATH card and building ID to complete my commute. She, of course, has to get kids to school first, so I've just made my 100-minute take, oh... 200 minutes. If I'm lucky.
2) In transferring from the freeloaded train to the waiting area, have the mobile broadband card fail, which means that the Shooter Wife may have real issues finding me at the station, since she hasn't been here before and will be driving around in rush hour traffic with a 3-year-old. Her cell phone is also prone to failure.
3) Find the blind guy that needs to read his Bible out loud in ever-increasing amounts of volume in the lounge area. He, of course, activates the Japanese tourist on his cell phone, so they can have a Noise Off.
4) Have the laptop lose power any minute now, I'm sure.
5) After moving away from Mr. Bible and Friends, be surrounded by guys who smell like poo as I wait for the Shooter Wife. Newark's lovely in off-peak hours.
I'm sure the rest of my day will be just peachy. Hey veterans, are we friends again yet?
A wildly entertaining game in the desert tonight between two teams that really aren't going to have history books written about them. The Cardinals' first MNF win since beating Tom Landry (!) had the following quick notes...
> A 104 yard kickoff return from Allen Rossum opened this one, and Cardinal Fan had to know there were in a dogfight. Emphasis on dog.
> Most of the game, the Niners were unable to get pressure and Kurt Warner was exceptionally accurate. That they scored only 29 tells you just how sloppy this one was.
> With 11:30 left and the Niners clinging to a one point lead, Frank Gore dropped a sure first down pass in the flat. When your best player can't make the play to more or less ice it... well, there was More To Come. Let's just say Gore's not going to remember this game fondly.
> How you know that the Cardinals aren't really a contender, Clue #8006 -- being unable to run the ball at all against the Niners. At home. Even with Tim Hightower taking nearly all of the snaps. Sheesh.
> Yes, Vernon Davis caught a touchdown pass tonight... then cost his team a 15 yard penalty for removing his helmet while celebrating. It didn't cost the Niners anything, and Singletary laughed about it on the sidelines... but man alive, is this guy a moron.
> 45% of the time that he plays a game, Kurt Warner throws for over 300 yards. Your second place guy on that list is Dan Fouts, at 28%. Now, others will break on to this list as they meet a 100 game minimum, but still, ye gads. Mr. Warner has had some moments.
> The teams combined for 20 flags tonight for 162 yards. Yes, the refs matched the level of play of the teams.
> In the first half of this game, Shaun Hill did something I've never seen in on a football game before. On a 3rd and 11, the Niners called a quarterback draw to the left. Hill got popped a few yards short of the sticks, and had his helmet removed in the contact. He then fought through the tackle and dove, without protection and head first, for the first down.
Hill's not terribly gifted physically, and he cost his team the game tonight with some breathtaking mistakes -- two in the fourth quarter, both of them inept, and others that were called back on penalties. He doesn't have the confidence of his coordinator, the pass-wacky Mike Martz, and there's a good reason for that, in that his decision-making is bad, even for a Martz QB.
But on the strength of diving for a first with a bare head, he's going to draw an NFL paycheck for five years. He also gets every ounce of performance out of his ability with offside snap draws, the ability to get rid of the ball under huge pressure -- tonight at one point, 17 hurries, no sacks -- and just pure ballsiness. You don't really want him quarterbacking your team, but many teams employ a lot worse. Of such things are practice squads made... and no, JT O No Sullivan is *not* getting this job back.
> Tonight's Niners team were physical on defense despite facing a red-hot Kurt Warner in the second half, covered the 9.5 point spread with ease, had any number of chances to win, and fought hard. They might be the second best team in this division. And oh, my, what a horrible, horrible division it is...
> Twice in the second half of this game, the Cardinals were over-aggressive at the line, drawing ticky-tack five yard flags that wound up costing them defensive turnovers and touchdowns. It's a snakebitten franchise, folks.
> The last five minutes of this game simply defied description. Hill threw an inexcusable pick. The Cardinals couldn't get a first, and punted. After some of the worst prevent defense pass coverage you have ever seen, the Niners get the ball to the 1 with 40 seconds left, and inexplicably take 20 seconds to spike it. No, I'm serious.
The Niners then bounce Gore to the left, and on not enough contact to take a man down in two-hand touch, their star loses his balance before he can get in. The Niners then spike it with two seconds left, and the final play of the game is an Andy Reid-esque fullback dive from the three with Michael Robinson. The Cards stopped it and escaped with the win.
Honestly, this was wild fun, but I can't wait to wager against this Cardinals team in the playoffs... even though, with a four-game lead in their division, they will have the franchise's first home playoff game since 1949.
Yes, 1949. The franchise was in Chicago then.
(Oh, and having Warner and the balls-nasty Anquan Boldin in my points league got me to second overall tonight... after being last in Week 1 after The Brady Moment. What a ride.)
Tonight's list covers the shocking trade of the A's for Matt Holliday. It's all snark and hurt feelings, of course, since being an A's fan for the past several years has been like being a Phillies fan in the mid '90s... but if they can back this move up, with, I don't know, five or six more (move Huston Street, please), well, hope springs eternal.
OK, I lied, I'm sure they're just doing it as a nonsense instant rental, and even if they do keep them, they'll still have one of the worst five offenses in baseball, unless Daric Barton decides to become Albert Pujols, or if they have a half dozen rookie of the year types to swing the bats next year. But somehow, I'm doubting it.
I hate what the NFL has done with night football games.
Part of this, I am sure, is the fact that I've never really adapted back to the East Coast time zone in terms of watching games. There is nothing quite as enjoyable as rolling out of bed at 9:30am, giving the roto wires a last check to see if you are boned or not on injuries to your fantasy league players, and getting the games going over a good breakfast. By the time the late game rolls around, you can slug your way through those and still have daylight left to prevent feeling like an utter pig. It's vastly superior to having to race through stuff in the morning, knowing that if you watch both the 1 and 4 games, you won't see the sun again, casino-style, especially after the daylight savings adjustment.
Now, the Sunday night game? That, historically, was the property of The World Wide Lemur, who treated it as some bizarre experiment in Hipster Fanboy Football. Either you get the wildly overenthusiastic crew of Tirico-Maguire-Theismann (I'm pretty sure that I can still give you hives with an impersonation), or the Let's Hear A Hack Writer Work Out His Column stylings of the Kornheiser Three. (Please, Lord, for Thanksgiving... kill Cornhole. It doesn't even have to be painful. I'll be ever so good.)
The MNF game was rare, quarantined, special, tolerable only in its exception. Especially on the West Coast (and, alas, when I was young and not prone to falling asleep in front of the television), it was more than OK to miss. But now that the lords of night have access to flex schedules and fantasy sports makes nearly every damn game meaningful, it's hostage-esque. I want my evenings back.
Or, if not back, at least not so freaking painful.
There's no worse feeling for an NFL fan than a SNF/MNF loss. You get to go to bed with it (good luck with that: my nightmares had readjusted red lines periodically appearing in them), complete with the knowledge that the loss basically hurts extra, since there's less recovery time for your team afterwards. Also, um, that your team is the Philadelphia Eagles, who can't win under the lights now to save their lives, and routinely have their most dispiriting losses in prime time.
Don't believe me? Here's the track record.
2008 - 0-3 and counting
Week 10, SNF: Lose at home to the Giants, 36-31
Week 4, SNF: Lose on the road to the Bears, 24-20
Week 2, MNF: Lose on the road to the Cowboys, 41-37
2007 - No wins, four losses, much cursing
Week 12, SNF: Lose on the road to the Patriots, 31-28
Week 9, SNF: Lose at home to the Cowboys, 38-17
Week 4, SNF: Lose on the road to the Giants, 16-3
Week 2, MNF: Lose at home to the Redskins, 20-12
You have to go back to Week 16, 2006 (a 23-7 win over Dallas in Dallas) for the Birds last win in prime time. Since then, you've had your choice of knee to the groin, gouge to the eyes, or body cavity violation. Nothing, and I do mean nothing, has signified the change from the promising start of the Andy Reid Era to its sad and growing obsolescence as the team's performance under the lights.
Oh, and if you want to start dreading the next one? It's Week 13, when the Eagles are the third Thanksgiving game, at home against the Cardinals. And Week 15, a MNF game against Cleveland at home. They should be favored in both games, given that the Cardinals rarely show up on the road and the Browns are kind of horrible.
But it wouldn't surprise me if they blew both games. After all, the run defense clearly can't show up at night, and Andy clearly can't think at night anymore...
Small points from four hours that I'm not getting back...
> When you give up 219 yards rushing, you should not win a football game. Period. End of statement.
> Teams that can not stop the run should not win football games. Period. End of statement.
> Eli Manning has never lost a regular season game in Philadelphia. And given his offensive line and running game, he may never.
> Kevin Boss's first 8 games: 13 catches for 148 yards. Tonight: 6 for 69. Something to remember -- and, for God's sake, address. This would never happen if Brian Dawkins were alive.
> When you need to lose a tight game, there is no better coach in the business than Andy Reid. Seriously, Andy, after 58 minutes of not establishing the running game and getting killed on time of possession, it's high time to call two short yardage runs. Capital idea. And a few more obviously awful instant replay challenges would be good, too.
Let's quote a great man, New Jersey Devils coach Jim Schoenfeld, for my advice for Andy right about now.
> Can some defender please, pretty please, stand up and put your helmet into the groin of a hurdling offensive player? It would only be the best video clip ever.
> Why is it that you can have the ball over the line of scrimmage while throwing it, so long as some tiny amount of your foot is close to the line? (I get that this is the rule. I also get that it was a great move by the Giants to call for the review. It's just a horrible freaking rule. Where the ball is matters for touchdown calls; it should matter for throwing near the line of scrimmage.
> The Lemur's talking heads talked about how the Giants schemed for Westbrook tonight, and how much that helped them. Um, one small point. Westbrook has owned the Giants for years now. One presumes they've schemed for him before. It's fair to ask, sadly, if BDub's best days are behind him, especially if he's "healthy" now. It's not like he's Marvin Harrison running with a fork in his back, but Correll Buckhalter made more plays tonight than Westbrook.
> As bad as the Eagles played tonight, they scored 31 points and had a chance late against what is probably (sorry, I'm about to throw up) the best team in football.
There is one lesson from this: if you can keep Donovan upright, you have a chance. But not even of one. (Oh, and kudos to the offensive line on pass blocking, Jon Runyon especially. Credit when due.)
> The loss puts the hometown team back into last place, and the schedule gets difficult after next week's game in Cincinnati. It also makes them 0-3 in the division. There are games that still matter in this year, but unless they are able to run the table in the division, there won't be a playoff game. Again.
> Seriously, Andy, you fat piece of crap? Spend some time on stopping the running game. I don't enjoy watching football while vomiting.
Your link is here, and oh, Theoretical Audience, it's hard to blog when you're filled with this much annoyance and disdain for your football team. More on that soon. It'll be vent-a-riffic.
In about 600 days, LeBron James could become a free agent.
There are NBA franchises -- yes, plural -- that appear ready to do little more than sit around and wait until that day.
They will, if history is any precedent, be wasting their time.
Yes, LBJ likes New York and the big lights. Sure, he's friends with Jay-Z, who's connected with the Nets. Maybe Brooklyn (specifically, Park Slope) is that hipster-cool that he'd want to be there.
But honestly, if you're going to New York, why aren't you going to the Garden, especially now that Mike D'Antoni has the Knicks running and gunning?
Or, for that matter, Detroit, where Joe Dumars has shown that, so long as Darko Miličić isn't involved, he knows what to do with a draft board?
There's also, of course, Dallas, where Mark Cuban probably isn't going to let the best young player in the world go without a bid... or Portland, where Paul Allen could say the same... or, well, his hometown Cavs, who might not give him the best chance to win a title, but will be able to pay him more than anyone else... and this is all assuming that some European team doesn't just back the truck up and give him an astounding amount of money.
By the way, I'm missing out on at least five other scenarios here. (Bulls, anyone?)
You see, LBJ is a marvelous prize... but putting all of your eggs in his basket is just a bad bet. Tank to get him and clear cap space, and you make your franchise look like a loser. Pretending that he won't just stay home (especially if, say, Mo Williams works out, and he gets any kind of help from his bigs) ignores what any number of NBA superstars have done for years -- which is to say, keep the market guessing, but eventually take the maximum money at home.
Mind you, there are many, many reasons to be clear in 2010 -- it's also the year that you could be chasing Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Yao Ming, Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh... and that's just the cream of the crop in Unrestricted Land.
But it's funny... the closer you get to the deadline, the more that teams are going to lock these guys up. No one, of course, wants to see big talent walk without a return. Big talent, for the most part, hates the idea of going all the way to the river before getting paid, when a rolled ankle or blown knee at any moment before payday could mean they've outsmarted themselves out of hundreds of millions of dollars. (Especially when the bad economy has to, at some point, start picking off the weaker franchises. Even billionaires notice when they lose big chunks of money.)
And that's why NBA championships are won in the draft, or at the trading table... but not the free agent market. But feel free to obsess over the market year that will finally change all of that.
Rumors out of Charlotte have new Bobcats' coach Larry Brown up to his old "Nobody buy a house" ways.
We'll start with the obvious: blowing up the roster is not exactly along the lines of torching the Sistine Chapel. The 'Cats have never won more than 33 games in a season, and with Michael Jordan as the GM, they've done nothing to counter the argument that the surest way to suck in the NBA is to hire an ex-star player in a personnel advisory role.
HOWEVAH -- and yes, one does miss Steven A. Smith from such conversations, if only in theory -- the problem is that Larry's not exactly a genius when it comes to these moves himself. He inherited a team with a tolerable point guard in Raymond Felton and no reasonable power forward on the roster, unless you count Emeka Okafor, who serves as their center. Sean May shows flashes, but can't stay healthy and when on rehab, can't stay thin. So in the draft, Brown pushes for... DJ Augustin, another point guard, while quality bigs were on the board. Oh well, you're going to be in the lottery next year anyway, so why not?
Once this domino falls, it's time to start pointing fingers at the players who actually produce. The latest to generate Brown's ire is swingman Gerald Wallace, who fantasy owners love for multi-category numbers, but real basketball fans are more or less indifferent to. He doesn't have enough of a jump shot to play in the back court, and isn't strong enough inside to play three, but he can do some things, especially in the open court. On a good team, he's an outstanding sixth man. On the Bobcats, he's trade bait for not enough return, because that's what happens when Larry comes to town.
The trouble here is that bad moves have a domino effect, and overwhelm the good. The team traded for Jason Richardson from Golden State a year ago; despite some flaws, he might be the best player in the history of the franchise, and if he isn't, it's only because bad men matter more in hoop, and Okafor was a #1 overall pick. But since they also pulled the trigger on the Adam Morrison Experience (another Jordan Special), that's a more or less complete hole, where they should have the starting small forward that makes Wallace a good bench player.
Since they also took on the breathtakingly bad Nazr Mohammed contract (big money for a bad player, woo hoo!), they don't have the flexibility they need to get a useful power player in the event that May turns out to be, well, useless. And since they decided to cut Felton off at the knees, they can distract themselves with the idea that they can't be good until Augustin learns the position and becomes NBA-ready. Which, well, is somewhat problematic, considering that he's (very) undersized and likely to be a defensive sieve even if he does make it in the league.
Adding to this vacuum effect is the fact that the owner (BET president Bob Johnson, one of the few minority owners in all of sports) has been hemorrhaging money and looking to sell. So you've got an owner whose heart isn't in it, a GM who hasn't shown any ability in the role (Kwame Brown, anyone?), and a coach that's approaching ancient, gives a new meaning to the word nomadic, and seriously may have lost the fastball for good after that nine-mile train wreck in New York. The other night in the garden, he was going up and down the bench screaming for a player, Jared Dudley, to get in the game... when he was already in. We may be in the stage where Larry can only have soft foods here.
What will happen is that Brown will eventually find a core of athletic hustle players who buy into what he's selling. He might even develop a tolerable scoring situation if Augustin and Richardson can survive the hazing. The Bobcats will trend up in 1-2 years towards a .500 team. Brown and Jordan will receive the media mouth jobs for turning around the franchise; heck, they might even become an 8 seed in the East. But the ceiling will be limited to no more than a few games over break even, because Brown will have ran off more talented players and driven his management team to distraction.
Then, it's time to go pitch the monorail to some other franchise. Oh, and what I've just laid out here is the best case scenario.
Shocking that they have attendance problems, isn't it?
Today's list is only slightly less crazy than the things that actually go on over there. I've had the, um, pleasure of being at two different Raider games in person, and the secret is that their fans are drunk on whiskey, not beer... much of it smuggled in via flasks and prosthetic limbs.
When I first got out of college, I lived in a hovel of a house in a terrible part of Philly. My housemate and I were in a corner building, and I had the second floor bedroom, which had this gun turret window view of the abandoned buildings, crack dealer area, and elevated train. It was stupid cheap, allowed me to live without a car, and was all I could afford on temp wages as I waited for a journalism job that would pay a living wage in George Bush's American recession. That wait didn't go so well.
My housemate and I weren't neat freaks, but in that environment of everything being crappy, it didn't much mattered how you cleaned - you'd either get grimy and dirty or filthy and dirty.
Besides, we were guys (and even worse, straight). We cleaned, but we didn't scour. We picked up after ourselves, but we weren't fanatics. We also didn't seal and caulk every crevice between our place and our neighbors, and in Philadelphia, the houses share common walls.
Then, the roaches came.
A word about the urban roach. When it arrives, you need to resign yourself to the fact that it's not a Personal Plague from a Vengeful God. Nor is it All Someone Else's Fault, since you could have taken steps to prevent it (and will, in your next Hovel House).
Finally, there's this: short of a fanatical obsession and the ability to not blink in the face of making yourself your own lab test subject in a game of Pesticide Overdose, once The Boys Are Back In Town, they are yours for life.
(What, you might wonder, does this have to do with this week's NFL picks? Patience. I'm almost there.)
When you finally break down and go for Chemical Death, it is oddly exciting. We chose gas canisters. You disconnect the fire extinguishers, put tarps (or, more likely because of your regrettable poverty and basic nonchalance if the whole shithouse goes up in flames, newspapers) under the tins so that your precious roach-ridden carpet doesn't stain. You then close the windows, activate the Death, and flee before you die with the crunchy little bastards.
When you return to the scene of the insecticide, you find gratifying roach carnage, especially in places like the bathtub or kitchen. You sweep up their bodies, delighting in the illusion that you've made your life slightly less horrible. Seriously, we must have killed thousands. What the bathtub looked like still shows up in my nightmares.
If you are very lucky, the surviving roaches -- and there are always survivors -- move back to your neighbor's place (because they moved to yours when the other guy roach-bombed). Then, you hope that the neighbors don't roach bomb for a while, so that your freeloading occupants don't get so numerous that you want to do the whole thing again.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
You see, urban roaches never leave, really. They just migrate.
This now brings us to the roach of the NFL fan's world, aka the NFL Network.
When last we left this pernicious scourge, it had scuttled off to the floorboards after eating the hot chemical death of a world that refused to not see the Perfectiots play the Giants in Week 17 of the 2007-08 NFL season. Many people thought they were dead, given how the public well and truly hates not getting football, not to mention the craptacular job the NFLN did in televising their product.
Well, guess what? They're back... Waving their antennae, nibbling on your eye mucus as you sleep, making your fantasy leagues (even) more of a timesuck, and bleeding dry the raw wonder that is a packed and potent Sunday NFL slate. Oh, and they are also making me grind out a picks column and fantasy moves early, when I'm still sleep-deprived from the Tuesday night history.
I hate them, you hate them, and we all wish there was a way we could get rid of them. (And if you don't hate them, go live with them. You diseased freak.)
So let's just try to ignore them for a while until we have enough cash to move to a place with Bondian Supervillain Dish Access, OK?
And with that, on to the picks!
* * * * *
'enver at CLEVELAND (-3)
Two teams I'm really beginning to hate, on a night that's never good for football, on a network that I don't get. Hoo boy, what's not to love here?
If the Broncos couldn't win at home off a bye against the Dolphins, I'm not seeing them breaking through on the road, even against a wildly flawed Browns team that's turning to Brady Quinn to give them a pulse. In the AFC North with a hurt Ben Rothleseberger, that doesn't take that much, and the new QB will help them call some freaking running plays and let their good OL remember that they are, in fact, a good OL.
Of course, it also doesn't hurt that they'll be playing 'enver, who are a punchline that you've seen so many times by now.
Oh, and Jay Cutler? Your fantasy football owners called. They want you to stop treating the diabetes.
Browns 27, Broncos 20
NEW ORLEANS at Atlanta (-1)
The line looks all kinds of screwy on first blush. The Saints are erratic, will still be missing Reggie Bush, haven't gotten Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey back to full power, and will be on the road in what should be a loud dome.
On the other hand, they'll be coming off a bye, while the Falcons spent last week in a de facto bye in Oakland. On a fast Georgia Dome track in a town that might support its teams on a per capita basis less than any other, I'm liking the Saints to notch a quality win.
Besides, the Saints defense is better than you think against the run, which means it no longer causes cheese to curdle. That might not seem too problematic for the home team, since rookie Matt Ryan has been better than anyone, including possibly Ryan, might have expected. But he's not going to be able to match Drew Brees in a shootout.
Saints 34, Falcons 31
TENNESSEE at Bears (+3)
I'd honestly take the Titans here at Bears +9.5. It's not that the Bears are a bad team -- far from it. Heck, they might even be the most complete outfit in the NFC North. But the problem is that this can only be true if the improbably good Kyle Orton is at the controls... and as you might have heard by now, that's not going to happen. Instead, Bears Fan gets to watch this one between his fingers as Sexy Rexy brings cover-your-eyes quarterbacking back to the home town crowd. Can Chicago boo him senseless just five days after hosting over 100K joyous election day people? Yes They Can!
Titans 24, Bears 13
Jacksonville at DETROIT (+6.5)
Can the Jaguars give a second winless team their first, and perhaps only, win of the season... and in back to back weeks? Well, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, we know what they are; now we are just negotiating a price. It seems hard to imagine a Lions team that is truly terrible *and* will play Drew Stanton or Daunte Culpepper can beat anyone, even at home... but the Jaguars are magic, especially on defense, and capable of playing to any team's level. I think the home team will come close but not quite again, so the number is too big to pass up.
Jaguars 24, Lions 21
Seattle at MIAMI (-8.5)
I've watched way too much Seabag Football, in that I've watched any Seabag Football. First that SNF atrocity against the Bucs, then last week's flaccid effort against the Eagles. There's nothing quite so dispiriting as a Dead Team Walking, and a road trip to Miami to face a Dolphins team that is -- no, seriously -- a better than even money bet to win the AFC East this year isn't what they need right now. Even if the Seabags were good, the sheer length of this road trip (seriously, might be the longest flight in the NFL this year that doesn't involve London) would be daunting, and the Dolphins do that Wildcat Thing better than anyone else.
The Seabags do have one thing going for them right now, though, and that's the years of media mouth jobbing for their ice flow bound coach, Walrus Holmgren. This manifests itself in praise for him as his team continues to pile up the non-effort and bonehead plays, while the announcers talk about how really, really mad he is about all of this. Look, fans! His team is terrible, but he's going to yell at them! That's something, right?
Dolphins 30, Seahawks 14
GREEN BAY at Minnesota (-2.5)
One of the better games of the day has this fight for the division between two teams with similar records... and that's where the similarities end. Minnesota beats you with Adrian Peterson and little else on offense, though Gus Frerotte has been better than Tarvaris Jackson, kind of in the same way that having gonorrhea is better than having syphilis. That line made me think of a truly mind-blowing video in which Disney taught kids about various forms of sexually transmitted disease, prompting a long and bitter web video search that only ended with the Simpons making me happy.
It's a wonder I get anything done at all, really.
Anyway, getting back to the game at hand... I like the Pack here, mostly because I think this Vikings team is a poor man's version of the Titans team that the Packers nearly took out last week. Also, Ryan Grant was able to keep the chains moving for the Packers last week, and Steve Slaton had some success aginst the Vikings behind a mediocre Texans' line. I think they'll be able to run the ball just enough to give Aaron Rodgers time to find Greg Jennings, and when that happens, the road team will put enough points on the board to make AP less than All-Day.
Packers 24, Vikings 20
Buffalo at NEW ENGLAND (-3.5)
Buffalo's fall from grace continued last week, and it's time to figure out if they were, really, ever that good; most of their wins have came against teams that turned out to not be very good, and Marshawn Lynch has disappointed, leaving too much of the burden on the relatively noodle-armed Trent Edwards. The thing about this Bills' team is that they always seem young and up and coming, thanks to good coaching and a college-town kind of vibe from their one-sport town (and no, I don't care about the Sabres).
This is mostly because they don't really have the means to compete, which is why they're dallying with Toronto.
So when the rubber hits the road, and they have to beat a good team in a pressure situation, it doesn't get done. That may or may not be sad, depending on your view of upstate New York, but it's how you bet.
As for the Patriots, it was fun to watch them lose a winnable game last week on the road in Indy on dropped touchdown passes and poor timeout managment, the best of which was a coaches' challenge of a 12 men on the field call. Way to blow the end game for five yards, Belichick. What's next, wearing your Browns' gear and completely reverting to form? (And yes, the fact that he did all of this is a sign that he, too, knows that this season is ending in a humiliating first round playoff loss against a team that actually has a quarterback.)
Patriots 23, Bills 16
ST. LOUIS at NY Jets (-8.5)
The Jets will win this game, but they won't cover the number, because Brett Favre will throw too many picks. This is not a recording.
Seriously, what will it take for Coach Eric Mangini to actually make his playbook match his talent? His lead running back, Thomas Jones, has four touchdowns in the last three games. His change of pace back, Leon Washington, is making big plays on short passes and stretch plays. His offensive line are big road grader types who seem to be a lot better at run blocking than pass blocking. His quarterback is mistake-prone to a nearly legendary level, possibly nursing some form of injury, and hasn't been consistently accurate all year. And his opponent is a soft dome team on the road in November that can't stop the run.
I get that you need to develop other aspects of the game to prepare yourself for the playoffs. I get that you aren't going to win big games against tough opponents by being one-dimensional. But, um, ManGenius? Maybe you should have Favre throw the TAINTs *after* you are up 2 or 3 scores from the running game, not before. And for heavens sake, Free Leon Washington!
Jets 31, Rams 24
BALTIMORE at Houston (NL)
I'm not sure why this one has come off the board -- the early line seems to have been the Ravens as a two-touchdown favorite, which seems crazy high for a road team with a game manager quarterback -- so I'm just going to treat it as a pick'em game. Give me the road team to exploit the Texans' defense, and for Sage Rosenfels to make the usual mistakes that Sage Rosenfels makes. The Joe Flacco Legend Continues!
Ravens 27, Texans 20
CAROLINA at Oakland (+9.5)
Wondering why Oakland is giving the bum's rush to bum cornerback Deangelo Hall? It's just to evade the wrath of Steve Smith, who wears out Hall even more than the rest of the NFL, in this otherwise meaningless interconference tilt.
The Raiders can't quit any more than they did last week against Atlanta, which makes this line a little much for the notorious road-feeble Panthers, but honestly, I may never bet on the Raiders to cover any spread ever again. It's just less painful that way.
Panthers 24, Oakland 9
INDIANAPOLIS at Pittsburgh (NL)
The Leftwich/Rothlesberger situation sends another game to pick'em territory. The Colts look like they are starting to round into form, and while the Steelers gutted out a road win in Washington last week, I'm not a fan of them here, with an opponent that has days to prepare for the back-up. Neither of these teams is where they should be, but both will make the playoffs.
Colts 24, Steelers 20
KANSAS CITY at San Diego (-15.5)
Really, the world is interested in giving the Chargers this much love at home against any team, even the I-AA Chiefs? Give me the road team to score just enough to keep this reasonable, especially since the last time the Chargers successfully rushed the passer, Shawne Merriman had two working knees.
Chargers 34, Chiefs 20
NY Giants at PHILADELPHIA (-2.5)
I kind of hate that the home team is favored here. After all, the Giants are the Super Bowl champions, have the best point differential, and just spent last week playing Punching Dummy with the Cowboys. Why should the home team, who has gotten back over .500 purely from their ability to make NFC West teams look like, well, NFC West teams, get the nod here?
Well, basically, because they are going to lose.
The Giants have had outstanding timing all year, in that they haven't faced a single team when they were on the upswing. Even with all of that, they've only blown teams out late, and I still don't buy the idea that they can rush the passer against a team that provides any kind of resistance to that approach. Against the home team, they'll see more Brian Westbrook than any other team has seen this year, and a secondary that can take away the secondary receivers. With Plex Burress well into the Disappointing Returns portion of his career, that's too much pressure for Eli to manage, especially in the red zone. It's been a really nice couple of weeks in town.
Eagles 27, Giants 16
SAN FRANCISCO at Arizona (-9.5)
The Cardinals can and should win this game, but the Niners have too much going for them to wave off this big of a number. Both teams are coming off a bye, but the Niners will be going to the slightly less turnover-riffic Shaun Hill, do have Frank Gore, and the recent history in this series is that Warner usually wins, but it's also usually ugly and tight.
I also think that since it's a MNF game and Arizona is filled with people who don't realize that MNF jumped the shark when it moved to ESPN, this is still a Big Deal to them. That will ratchet up the Overgeeking Factor of the Cardinals, who don't strike me as overcoached when it comes to managing their emotions.
Besides, as much as I love Kurt Warner for saving my ass in a couple of fantasy leagues so far this year, he is due for one of those 2 or 3 turnover games that have made three different franchises give the reins to someone else. I'm looking for a TAINT and garbage time touchdown to give the Niners the suck-out cover.
Today's link is a moment of real prediction for the later picks column. So you can click on it as a kind of appetizer for the later goodness, or just to see how I shoehorned in another PHILLIES WIN! WOO! moment. Go, view, return.
Allow me some post-drunk rambling. We'll get back to Teh Funny soon enough.
Four years ago tonight, I was in a Reno casino, watching an immense bank of televisions that showed the slow crushing horror that was Bush II. It was after a 16-hour-day of driving, canvassing, and feverish acts to try to get John Kerry votes, the last act of four months of fever work.
I worked like a dog for John Kerry. I canvassed for a thousand hours or more, gave him the full amount allowed by an individual, and, in the words of many of the people I read in the lefty blogosphere, left it all on the road.
And only now do I realize that I did it all wrong.
You see, I didn't really love my candidate. I just hated his opponent. Eventually everyone else did too, it seems, but in 2004, my pure motivation was to just get That Man out of office.
That doesn't describe Barack Obama's supporters.
They disdain the current Administration, of course, as well as the ugly little campaign that its failed successor ran. (Kudos for the gracious concession.) But Obama's supporters had more than that fuel. They had a true admiration, even a love, for their man.
I wasn't able to do that. My service was lacking.
Because of that, and ineffective campaigning, Swiftboating and more, the nation endured four more years of Bush pain. And my indifferent candidate sat on a significant amount of money, rather than fight for the office.
After the 2004 experience, I did no volunteer work, gave no money, and did nothing more than wish the now-President-elect well. Hell, in 2005, I tried like mad to get a job offer in New Zealand.
Barack Obama didn't need my help. That's OK -- it wasn't up to his standards, anyway.
Barack Obama is not a guy I'd want to drink a beer with. If he showed up at my poker table, I'd take my chips and walk away.
The reason why is because he's a better man than I am, on a lot of levels.
Presidents should be.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled petty snark, timewaste, and whole-hearted obsession about sports, for a very long time, I hope. The grown-ups are back in charge.
Um, CMJ Dad? No jinxes here, baby. Steelers 23, Redskins 6, and if Mike Tomlin didn't decide to be cute and start with an onside kick, maybe the "road team" is sniffing a shutout.
Oh, and a quick question for Redskins Fan. Did you all decide to sell out your tickets to the incoming Iron City connoisseurs? Because I don't really remember that many Terrible Towels in the house when Pittsburgh came to Philadelphia, which is closer than Washington...
Today's link is good fun, especially if you enjoy provoking the Jabba the Hut-esque Romeo Crennel. What is it with the state of Ohio and the sudden and shocking devolution of head coaches? This state needs a mercy killing. Someone just set the river on fire again, OK?
There's an image that the Sixers used last year to sell tickets in their run to the playoffs. In it, Allen Iverson is in mid-air, having been faked out of his shoes by Andre Miller. Miller then moves under him on his way to the hoop, and Iverson falls heavily to the floor. In the shot, AI's in mid-fall, and it's really awful. The former face of the franchise, made to look more or less helpless, as the new order sweeps him aside.
If you hate AI, it's probably your red-meat fist pump moment for the New Sixers, the ones that made the city care about basketball again.
And I follow the laundry and admire the job they've done in making the team over and getting fresh hope in town.
But I hate the photo, of course.
Today, the Nuggets continued their drive to the bottom rungs of the NBA by shuffling Iverson off to Denver for Chauncey Billups, the homecoming Antonio McDyess, and some other pieces of the puzzle that are, most likely, beneath anyone's notice.
For the one-time MVP, it's a chance for a fresh start after an unsatisfying 20 months in the Rockies. The Pistons can cover for his defensive issues and benefit from his offense, assuming that he's hot and motivated; given that his contract is up at the end of the year, that's a reasonably good bet. Fantasy players will hate it a little, because Denver just runs and Detroit just won't, but in terms of real-world basketball, it's a defensible move for both sides.
Besides, if it doesn't work out, the Pistons can just go to Rodney Stuckey, who is their future, and see who shakes out from AI and Rip Hamilton. Neither is terribly enticing as they move to their decline years, but championship teams have done with much worse in the backcourt.
As for the Nuggets, I have no idea what they are doing, other than trying to drive Carmelo Anthony to drink and drive his way out of town and avoid the salary tax. McDyess is a good guy and story, but he's also old, can't jump, and a tweak away from hanging it up. Billups is overrated, aging, and won't have many opportunities in Denver to do what he does best -- which is to say, drive a team home with late leads through big shots and great free throw shooting. Oh well, at least Jason Kidd finally has a matchup in the West that won't make him look so decrepit.
And, finally, we go to the real reason why I'm moved to write... AI. My favorite basketball player ever is entering that Aging Star mode, where it's increasingly difficult to just root for him without sadness of What Might Have Been, or What Can No Longer Be.
There will be no End Of Career Ring for AI, no Erving-esque sobbing with the trophy that eluded him for so long. You know, the shot that makes you just hurt with happiness to see him hold it.
Instead, he will play for five to eight more years, for two to three more teams, with final numbers that will pop from any record book, along with the idiotic sound bite memory of "Practice."
Many will fail to realize that he was the best to ever play the game at his height in his era. No one outside of Philadelphia will remember the transcendent stab of righteousness we all felt when he stepped over Tyronn Lue in the Sixers' Finals win over Kobe, Shaq and Coach Phillip. Or the series against Toronto where he carried a city on his bony shoulders with 50-point nights and a conductor's ear to the faithful. Or how he took out a Bucks' team with three of the four best players on the floor (Glenn Robinson, Sam Cassell and Ray Allen) in seven amazing games.
Three of my relatives threaten to move to Heaven, thanks to that Rapture thing from the Antichrist being elected. (Oddly, they haven't donated to the McCain campaign or volunteered to work for him. Guess they just aren't that invested in the planet.)
Make your own predictions in the comments. I'll keep track, and the closest will get a Mysterious Prize Of Dubious Value.
The Philadelphia Phillies may have won the World Series, but less people actually saw their victory. Fox's baseball coverage drew the lowest ratings since Nielsen Co. began tracking the audience 40 years ago. The five-game series, won by the Phillies 4-1 over the Tampa Bay Rays, drew an average rating of 8.4. The lowest previous rating was 10.6 in 2006, reports Bloomberg. Fox blamed poor weather as a factor.
In that Fox and Bud Selig suffered, and Philly Fan can keep their trademark "No one likes us" attytood. (Boston Fan, you might want to take note of this. You'll be less annoying that way.)
A nice and boring game for most of the second half, just the way that true fans like it. Here's some quick thoughts for my fellow Bird fans...
> There's dumb, there's remarkably stupid, and there's stopping the clock with a spike on thid down. Honestly, I've been watching football for a really long time now, and I've never seen a worse play by a quarterback, then to forget what down it was in the two-minute drill. I'm not sure that Seneca Wallace can recover from this, but the word "recovery" implies returning to competence. Not so much.
> Total penalties against the Eagles today: one. According to the box score, it was a 15-yarder, but as I missed it, it must have been in the last few minutes. For the most part, the team played laundry-free, which is kind of impressive against a team with a loud home crowd.
> One of the things that can just drive you crazy as an Eagles fan is how much Andy Reid puts on McNabb at the start of a game. Donovan has something of the old Brett Favre problem, in that he's rarely at his best from the start of a game... but heaven forbid Cap'n Andy let him ease his way into a game with some easy screens to Westbrook, or some actual running plays.
Instead it was throw, throw, throw, and after a lot of early wildness, the Eagles had three three-and-outs and a 7-0 hole after the defense's only slip of the day, a terrible long pass and run to Koren Robinson.
Thankfully, the Seahawks are a terrible, terrible team, and the defense only made the one mistake. But the Eagles wound up winning this game by 19, which is to say, they scored 26 unanswered points. Yeesh.
> Kevin Curtis looked good today, with six catches for 83 yards and a genuinely great deke and move play when the cornerback thought he was going to the sideline. But the bigger story was the breakout game for Brent Celek, who had 6 catches for 131 yards in his bid to make absolutely, positively sure that LJ Smith isn't with the team next year. You can argue that the Seahawks just didn't cover the TE if you like, but the fact is that Smith has just never been that productive, and at some point, only the numbers matter.
This also, of course, means that the team has hope even if DeSean Jackson hits the rookie wall, and considering that Reggie Brown had a touchdown today... well, let's just say that it's nice that Don's getting a bunch of weapons. Given that they won't have Shane Andrews to create a good short yardage push -- and yes, that surfaced again today, though thankfully David Akers didn't miss his chances -- it's going to be very important that the QB can go in a lot of different directions.
> The next week is the SNF game at home against the Giants, a must-win if the team wants to be considered seriously in the division and conference. Win, and you're just a game back from the Giants, who have a harder schedule going down the stretch. Lose, and you're back in the Probably Not Going To Make It ranks with the Cowboys. If I had to guess, the Giants are the favorite... and I'm kind of hoping they are, really.
Because when the Eagles play well, they can beat anyone -- and that includes a Giants team that was never tested in crushing the Cowboys at home today.
Besides, this is a title town now. Good things happen here, right?
Today's list starts with the remarkable two-minute drill killing third down spike from Seneca Wallace, and just builds on the hi-larity from there.
Not as hi-larious as picking the Raiders, keeping Anthony Gonzalez on my bench in all three of my fantasy leagues, and having Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger as your only available quarterbacks. But close, really.
OK, let me get this straight... the New York Knicks have been a terrible, terrible basketball team for as long as Stephon Marbury has been there.
Mike D'Antoni, the new head coach of the team who is a dead solid lock to be there longer than Starbury, comes to town. His entire game is based on quick and good percentage shots and running. Starbury's game, such as it is, is based on breaking down his man one-on-one and showing the world how good he can be.
He's also, and this is important, an utterly terrible defensive player, and a guy who makes the players around him worse, since he's, well, a loon and a cancer. We won't even get into the volumes of off-court insanity that he brings to the table, or the contributions that he's made to the circus atmosphere that was the Isiah Thomas harassment trial. (Speaking of another guy the Knicks would be better off without being in the same time zone...)
So D'Antoni gets the win in his first game, at home. The Knicks score 125 and are entertaining for the first time in forever. And the story is... Idiot Knicks Fans chanting for Marbury, and the press hounding D'Antoni over the DNP-CD. Then, a day later, Starbury being placed on the inactive list.
Look, let me make this simple for everyone. Independent of the $22 million that Marbury will make this year, he's a terrible basketball player. If he's your starting point guard, you are going to lose. A lot.
If the Knicks want to win games, they should not let him anywhere near their basketball team. Oh, and the same goes for Eddy Curry, too.
D'Antoni knows this. Anyone who has watched the Knicks with a functioning brain knows this. So... why is anyone chanting for him to get burn again?
It's mind numbing literary name dropping for a post set-up time here at FTT, and this one comes from a review of a book about architecture that I saw in the current edition of the London Review of Books.
Now that I've secured the coveted over-educated and pretentious sports fan demographic (it's treasured by the right advertisers, really), let me get to the meat of this.
The Pittsburgh Steelers lost a game last week, in very large part, because they only had one guy on the entire 45-man roster who could accurately long snap a football.
I might be overstating the case, and it's just that the back-up snapper picked the very worst time to whiff on a ball, but I have to think that if he had to do that job on a consistent basis, Steeler Fan would not be happy.
It's very likely that, had a similar injury happened to any other team's long snapper, they would have met a very similar fate.
Now, doesn't this strike you as, well, a bad way to run a railroad?
* * * * *
It's unlikely that anyone who is reading this has any idea what's involved in long snapping at a professional level. Besides, that's really not what I wanted to talk about here, anyway.
What I really wanted to get at was how specialization (in the case of an architect no longer being also a painter, a sculptor, or an illustrator) creates sterility (i.e., all the buildings start looking alike.)
Now, here's the reason why you have a dedicated long snapper; if the player fails, you can just blame the player and be done with it.
If you don't do it that way... well, the coach and general manager's ass is on the line, and that's not something that NFL front offices are all that comfortable doing. The advantage of an extra player on the 45 man roster just isn't worth it.
But still... Paul Hornung was the Green Bay Packers kicker. George Blanda kicked for the Raiders. The Patriots have a half dozen guys playing both ways. For all the ways to lose a football game, having a back-up long snapper among the active players just isn't a way to go.
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(I'm going to assume that if you are reading this blog, you've heard that Plaxico Burress shot himself by accident in a nightclub vestibule last night. If this is news to you, I know, amazing, isn't it? Positively Vickian.)
